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Sudden Stop and Sudden Flood of Foreign Direct Investment: Inverse Bank Run, Output, and Welfare Distribution

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  • Guillermo A. Calvo

Abstract

In this paper, I focus on a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the literature, namely that the mere expectation of foreign direct investment (FDI) incentivizes long‐maturity investment projects by domestic residents, and a Sudden Stop when expectations are frustrated. Long‐maturity investment projects enhance productivity but increase the economy's vulnerability to Sudden Stop. The discussion is framed in a context in which a Sudden Stop follows a surge of capital inflows (Sudden Flood), and FDI is concentrated on ongoing projects. A Sudden Stop episode can trigger a fire sale of long‐term assets, output collapse, and welfare redistribution, which is another ignored phenomenon.

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  • Guillermo A. Calvo, 2014. "Sudden Stop and Sudden Flood of Foreign Direct Investment: Inverse Bank Run, Output, and Welfare Distribution," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 5-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:116:y:2014:i:1:p:5-19
    DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12041
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    2. M Belén Salas & David Alaminos & Manuel Angel Fernández & Francisco López-Valverde, 2020. "A global prediction model for sudden stops of capital flows using decision trees," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-22, February.

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