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Competition or complementarity? Assessing the interaction effects of RCEP and CPTPP on agricultural and non-agricultural trade flows

Author

Listed:
  • Qingtun Kong

    (Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology)

  • Masaaki Yamada

    (Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology)

  • Chengcheng Yang

    (Tongling University)

  • Haisong Nie

    (Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology)

Abstract

As a central hub for global commodity trade, the Asia-Pacific region has increasingly contributed to global economic growth. This study examines the impact of recently enacted mega Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in the region, namely, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Employing the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator and Poisson generalized estimating equations (GEE) within an Augmented Gravity Model with four-way fixed effects, this study analyzes trade data from 2003 to 2023 across 19 member countries and conducts endogeneity and robustness tests on the results. The empirical findings are unable to demonstrate that the main effects of RCEP and CPTPP have statistically significant impact on trade flows. However, the interaction effects of RCEP and CPTPP significantly boosted the bilateral trade flows (excluding non-agricultural exports) of overlapping member countries, particularly in agricultural exports, which increased by 21.81%. These results underscore the critical role of Asia-Pacific economic integration in facilitating trade cooperation and highlight the complexities that mega FTAs encounter in facing geopolitical issues. Despite political challenges, the RCEP and CPTPP positively affect trade relations and economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Qingtun Kong & Masaaki Yamada & Chengcheng Yang & Haisong Nie, 2025. "Competition or complementarity? Assessing the interaction effects of RCEP and CPTPP on agricultural and non-agricultural trade flows," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-31, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:22:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-024-00628-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-024-00628-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic integration; RCEP and CPTPP; Endogeneity; Poisson generalized estimating equations; Interaction effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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