Attracting private capital for development: Are poorer countries less efficient?

According to common measures of private capital mobilization, such as the shares of foreign direct and portfolio investment in GDP, many low-income countries perform poorly in attracting private capital flows. However, these indicators do not account for differences in economic characteristics across countries, and thus cannot provide insights on countries’ performance relative to their potential levels of private capital flows as determined by their domestic economic structure and constraints. This paper addresses this gap by using nonparametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) to empirically calculate the efficient frontier for private capital mobilization as a function of countries’ domestic enabling environment, and then assess each country’s performance relative to that of other countries featuring similar domestic conditions. Our results reveal that many low-income countries, particularly in Africa and South Asia, which do not rank high according to achieved levels of private capital flows, are in fact performing on or very close to the efficient frontier. This indicates that these countries are good performers given the limited resources available to them. Tracking the performance of countries and regions over time, we furthermore find that sub-Saharan Africa experienced the strongest increases in DEA efficiency scores between 2007 and 2018, indicating that various countries in this region were catching up with the frontier.