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Untapped regional integration potential: A global frontier analysis

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  • Dominik Naeher
  • Raghavan Narayanan

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel approach to estimate untapped regional integration potential across geographical subregions of the world. We first construct an empirical production possibility frontier for regional integration outcomes based on two composite indices capturing enabling factors and achieved levels of regional integration outcomes across various domains. We then use non-parametric frontier analysis to rate the performance of subregions in terms of integration relative to their estimated potential. The obtained efficiency scores allow us to quantify and compare the empirical magnitudes of untapped integration potential across individual subregions. Our results suggest that, globally, subregional integration levels are currently at 60 percent of the estimated potential on average. Furthermore, there is large variation in integration outcomes, and subregions with large untapped integration potential are spread across all parts of the world. We also demonstrate how, from a policy perspective, the proposed method can be used for assessing achievements in targeting subregions with certain needs and characteristics, and guiding decisions about types of interventions that future programs aimed at fostering higher integration should prioritize in each subregion.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominik Naeher & Raghavan Narayanan, 2020. "Untapped regional integration potential: A global frontier analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 722-747, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:29:y:2020:i:6:p:722-747
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2020.1722204
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    Cited by:

    1. Bogetic,Zeljko & Naeher,Dominik & Narayanan,Raghavan, 2021. "Measuring Untapped Revenue Potential in Developing Countries : Cross-Country Frontier and Panel Data Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9776, The World Bank.
    2. De Lombaerde, Philippe & Naeher, Dominik & Vo, Hung Trung & Saber, Takfarinas, 2023. "Regional economic integration and machine learning: Policy insights from the review of literature," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 1077-1097.
    3. Takfarinas Saber & Dominik Naeher & Philippe Lombaerde, 2023. "On the Optimal Size and Composition of Customs Unions: An Evolutionary Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 1457-1479, December.
    4. Ullah, Atta & Pinglu, Chen & Ullah, Saif & Qaisar, Zahid Hussain & Qian, Ningyu, 2022. "The dynamic nexus of E-Government, and sustainable development: Moderating role of multi-dimensional regional integration index in Belt and Road partner countries," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Dominik Naeher & Raghavan Narayanan, 2023. "Attracting private capital for development: Are poorer countries less efficient?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-26, February.
    6. Dominik Naeher & Philippe Lombaerde & Takfarinas Saber, 2025. "Evaluating accession decisions in customs unions: a dynamic machine learning approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-27, February.

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