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How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs

Author

Listed:
  • Shyngys Karimov

    (KU Leuven)

  • Jozef Konings

    (KU Leuven
    Nazarbayev University
    University of Liverpool Management School)

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian firms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish between start-ups and incumbent firms with both short and long-term effects. In the short term, we expect to see significant losses of employment coming mainly from mature incumbent firms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups formed during the lockdown will have a significant and growing effect of slowing down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Shyngys Karimov & Jozef Konings, 2021. "How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 457-473, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:18:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-021-00513-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-021-00513-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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