IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v16y2019i2d10.1007_s10368-017-0394-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Central bank transparency and sovereign risk ratings: a panel data approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Caldas Montes

    (Fluminense Federal University)

  • Diego Silveira Pacheco Oliveira

    (Fluminense Federal University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect of central bank transparency on sovereign risk ratings. We address two channels through which central bank transparency affects sovereign risk ratings: the first is the direct channel, and it occurs due to the reduction of uncertainties regarding monetary policy decisions; the second is an indirect channel, and the transmission of the effect occurs through the inflation rate. We use a sample of 50 countries (where 40 are developing countries) for the period 1998–2014, and panel data methodology. The estimates suggest countries with greater central bank transparency present lower levels of inflation, and better sovereign risk ratings. Governments can raise their sovereign risk ratings by making efforts to raise central bank transparency. The results are observed for the full sample, and for the sample of developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Caldas Montes & Diego Silveira Pacheco Oliveira, 2019. "Central bank transparency and sovereign risk ratings: a panel data approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 417-433, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:16:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-017-0394-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-017-0394-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-017-0394-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-017-0394-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alonso-Borrego, Cesar & Arellano, Manuel, 1999. "Symmetrically Normalized Instrumental-Variable Estimation Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 36-49, January.
    2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Sagarika Mishra, 2011. "Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 914-933, April.
    3. Ghosh, Amit, 2014. "How do openness and exchange-rate regimes affect inflation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 190-202.
    4. N. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2014. "Central Bank Transparency and Independence: Updates and New Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 189-259, March.
    5. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    6. Broto, Carmen & Molina, Luis, 2016. "Sovereign ratings and their asymmetric response to fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 206-224.
    7. Helmut Reisen & Julia Maltzan, 1998. "Sovereign credit ratings, emerging market risk and financial market volatility," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 33(2), pages 73-82, March.
    8. Elif Arbatli & Julio Escolano, 2015. "Fiscal Transparency, Fiscal Performance and Credit Ratings," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 36, pages 237-270, June.
    9. Antonio Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2009. "Ordered response models for sovereign debt ratings," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 769-773.
    10. Indranarain Ramlall, 2016. "Does Central Bank Quality Determine Sovereign Ratings and Credit Default Swap Spreads: Evidence from the World?," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 5(3), pages 5-29.
    11. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    14. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2015. "Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 406-433, April.
    15. Carmen Altenkirch, 2005. "The Determinants Of Sovereign Credit Ratings: A New Empirical Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(3), pages 462-473, September.
    16. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    17. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    18. Schumacher, Ingmar, 2014. "On the self-fulfilling prophecy of changes in sovereign ratings," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 351-356.
    19. Reusens, Peter & Croux, Christophe, 2017. "Sovereign credit rating determinants: A comparison before and after the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 108-121.
    20. Ahmad, Saad & Civelli, Andrea, 2016. "Globalization and inflation: A threshold investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 283-304.
    21. Hill, Paula & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2010. "Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1327-1343, June.
    22. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    23. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    24. Ingmar Schumacher, 2014. "On the Self," Working Papers 2014-51, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    25. Erdem, Orhan & Varli, Yusuf, 2014. "Understanding the sovereign credit ratings of emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 42-57.
    26. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    27. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Diego S. P. Oliveira & Helder Ferreira Mendonça, 2016. "Sovereign Credit Ratings in Developing Economies: New Empirical Assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 382-397, October.
    28. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler & Jonathan Temple, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Papers 2001-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    29. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    30. Biglaiser, Glen & Staats, Joseph L., 2012. "Finding the “Democratic Advantage” in Sovereign Bond Ratings: The Importance of Strong Courts, Property Rights Protection, and the Rule of Law," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 515-535, July.
    31. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
    32. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    33. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    34. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
    35. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & da Silva Veiga, Igor, 2014. "A Note On Openness And Inflation Targeting: Implications For The Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(5), pages 1187-1207, July.
    36. repec:ipg:wpaper:201410 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Archer, Candace C. & Biglaiser, Glen & DeRouen, Karl, 2007. "Sovereign Bonds and the “Democratic Advantage”: Does Regime Type Affect Credit Rating Agency Ratings in the Developing World?," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 341-365, April.
    38. Vanja Bozic & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Credit Rating Agencies: The Importance of Fundamentals in the Assessment of Sovereign Ratings," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 157-176, September.
    39. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
    40. Antonio Afonso, 2003. "Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 56-74, March.
    41. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    42. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Valladares, Matheus & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2021. "Impacts of the sovereign risk perception on financial stability: Evidence from Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 358-369.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Diego S. P. Oliveira & Helder Ferreira Mendonça, 2016. "Sovereign Credit Ratings in Developing Economies: New Empirical Assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 382-397, October.
    2. Diego Silveira Pacheco De Oliveira & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2016. "Beyond The Macroeconomic Determinants Of Sovereign Credit Ratings In Developing Economies: A Panel Data Analysis Considering Different Dimensions," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 049, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Valladares, Matheus & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2021. "Impacts of the sovereign risk perception on financial stability: Evidence from Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 358-369.
    4. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & da Cunha Lima, Luiza Leitão, 2018. "Effects of fiscal transparency on inflation and inflation expectations: Empirical evidence from developed and developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 26-37.
    5. Bruno Pires Tiberto & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2023. "Effects of Sustainable Monetary and Fiscal Policy on FDI Inflows to EMDE Countries," Working Papers Series 575, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2024. "Are prudent monetary and fiscal policy drivers of FDI inflows?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(1).
    7. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Diogo Martins Esteves, 2018. "Monetary authority's transparency and income inequality," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 202-227, November.
    8. Zoran Ivanovic & Sinisa Bogdan & Suzana Baresa, 2015. "Modeling and Estimating Shadow Sovereign Ratings," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(3), September.
    9. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Nascimento, Natalia Cunha, 2020. "Monetary policy efficiency and macroeconomic stability: Do financial openness and economic globalization matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Zamira Oskonbaeva, 2020. "Determinants of credit ratings: evidence from panel discrete model," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 240-247.
    11. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Bastos, Júlio Cesar Albuquerque & de Oliveira, Ana Jordânia, 2019. "Fiscal transparency, government effectiveness and government spending efficiency: Some international evidence based on panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 211-225.
    12. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2017. "Effect of credibility and exchange rate pass-through on inflation: An assessment for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 196-244.
    13. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Galvão, Délio José Cordeiro & Loures, Renato Falci Villela, 2013. "Credit and bank opaqueness: How to avoid financial crises?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 605-612.
    14. Emna Trabelsi, 2019. "Do independence and transparency matter for bank development? A new lookup on emerging and developing countries," Post-Print hal-02162780, HAL.
    15. Hayakawa, Kazuhiko, 2007. "Small sample bias properties of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 32-38, April.
    16. Slapnik, Ursula & Lončarski, Igor, 2023. "Understanding sovereign credit ratings: Text-based evidence from the credit rating reports," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Aras, Osman Nuri & Öztürk, Mustafa, 2018. "The Effect of the Macroeconomic Determinants on Sovereign Credit Rating of Turkey," MPRA Paper 86642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Barcelos, Vívian Íris, 2015. "Securitization and credit risk: Empirical evidence from an emerging economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 12-28.
    19. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira, 2018. "Central bank disclosure as a macroprudential tool for financial stability," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 625-636.
    20. Cuadros-Solas, Pedro Jesús & Salvador Muñoz, Carlos, 2022. "Disentangling the sources of sovereign rating adjustments: An examination of changes in rating policies following the GFC," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign ratings; Central bank; Transparency; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:16:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-017-0394-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.