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Cameron’s information disaster in the referendum of 2016: an exit from Brexit?

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  • P. J. J. Welfens

    (University of Wuppertal (EIIW)
    University of Wuppertal
    AICGS/Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

The BREXIT referendum of June 23, 2016, represents a rather surprising decision by the UK electorate and it is a historical result with implications for the UK, Europe and the world economy. It can be shown that a major information blunder by the Cameron government forms part of the explanation of the referendum result: The 16 page info brochure that government sent out to households did not contain a single key finding of the Treasury study on the economic effects of EU membership on the UK and the cost of BREXIT, respectively. While prior to the Scottish referendum of 2014 the Cameron government conveyed key economic insights to households, before the BREXIT vote the government did not give the Treasury’s finding that a 10 % output loss was to be expected as a long run BREXIT effect – had households obtained this information, the referendum would have been 52 % in favor of Remain. Thus there is a new, very convincing argument for a second referendum. Also, US perspectives are emphasized.

Suggested Citation

  • P. J. J. Welfens, 2016. "Cameron’s information disaster in the referendum of 2016: an exit from Brexit?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 539-548, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:13:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-016-0361-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-016-0361-3
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    1. Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Hanna Norberg & Olga Pindyuk & Patrick Tomberger, 2013. "Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment: An Economic Assessment," Economics working papers 2015-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    2. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "A Politico-Economic Model of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(350), pages 243-253, June.
    3. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2011. "Innovations in Macroeconomics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-11909-5, April.
    4. Andre Jungmittag & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2016. "Beyond EU-US Trade Dynamics: TTIP Effects Related to Foreign Direct Investment and Innovation," EIIW Discussion paper disbei212, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nattavudh Powdthavee & Anke C. Plagnol & Paul Frijters & Andrew E. Clark, 2019. "Who Got the Brexit Blues? The Effect of Brexit on Subjective Wellbeing in the UK," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(343), pages 471-494, July.
    2. Paul J. J. Welfens & David Hanrahan, 2017. "The Brexit Dynamics: British and EU27 Challenges After the EU Referendum," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 52(5), pages 302-307, September.
    3. Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Plagnol, Anke C. & Frijters, Paul & Clark, Andrew E., 2017. "Who Got the Brexit Blues? Using a Quasi-Experiment to Show the Effect of Brexit on Subjective Wellbeing in the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 11206, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects

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