IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v13y2016i4d10.1007_s10368-016-0361-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cameron’s information disaster in the referendum of 2016: an exit from Brexit?

Author

Listed:
  • P. J. J. Welfens

    (University of Wuppertal (EIIW)
    University of Wuppertal
    AICGS/Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

The BREXIT referendum of June 23, 2016, represents a rather surprising decision by the UK electorate and it is a historical result with implications for the UK, Europe and the world economy. It can be shown that a major information blunder by the Cameron government forms part of the explanation of the referendum result: The 16 page info brochure that government sent out to households did not contain a single key finding of the Treasury study on the economic effects of EU membership on the UK and the cost of BREXIT, respectively. While prior to the Scottish referendum of 2014 the Cameron government conveyed key economic insights to households, before the BREXIT vote the government did not give the Treasury’s finding that a 10 % output loss was to be expected as a long run BREXIT effect – had households obtained this information, the referendum would have been 52 % in favor of Remain. Thus there is a new, very convincing argument for a second referendum. Also, US perspectives are emphasized.

Suggested Citation

  • P. J. J. Welfens, 2016. "Cameron’s information disaster in the referendum of 2016: an exit from Brexit?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 539-548, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:13:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-016-0361-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-016-0361-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-016-0361-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-016-0361-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Hanna Norberg & Olga Pindyuk & Patrick Tomberger, 2013. "Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment: An Economic Assessment," Economics working papers 2015-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    2. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "A Politico-Economic Model of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(350), pages 243-253, June.
    3. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2011. "Innovations in Macroeconomics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-11909-5, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nattavudh Powdthavee & Anke C. Plagnol & Paul Frijters & Andrew E. Clark, 2019. "Who Got the Brexit Blues? The Effect of Brexit on Subjective Wellbeing in the UK," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(343), pages 471-494, July.
    2. Paul J. J. Welfens & David Hanrahan, 2017. "The Brexit Dynamics: British and EU27 Challenges After the EU Referendum," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 52(5), pages 302-307, September.
    3. Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Plagnol, Anke C. & Frijters, Paul & Clark, Andrew E., 2017. "Who Got the Brexit Blues? Using a Quasi-Experiment to Show the Effect of Brexit on Subjective Wellbeing in the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 11206, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Welfens & Tony Irawan, 2014. "Transatlantic trade and investment partnership: sectoral and macroeconomic perspectives for Germany, the EU and the US," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 293-328, September.
    2. Welfens, Paul J. J., 2016. "Integrated Macroeconomic Production Function for Open Economies: A New Schumpeterian Solow Model for Globalization," IZA Discussion Papers 9724, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Andre Jungmittag & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "EU-US trade post-trump perspectives: TTIP aspects related to foreign direct investment and innovation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 259-294, February.
    4. Paul Welfens & Jens Perret & Deniz Erdem, 2010. "Global economic sustainability indicator: analysis and policy options for the Copenhagen process," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 153-185, August.
    5. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2011. "The Twin Crisis: From the Transatlantic Banking Crisis to the Euro Crisis?," EIIW Discussion paper disbei187, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    6. Beckman, Jayson & Burfisher, Mary & Mitchell, Lorraine & Arita, Shawn, 2021. "Hidden obstacles to trade: The case of the EU’s Ban on beef hormones," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1332-1343.
    7. Charnikat, Charnikat & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Granger-causal relationship between real exchange rate and economic growth: Malaysia as a case study," MPRA Paper 108939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mavuş, Merve & Oduncu, Arif & Güneş, Didem, 2013. "The Possible Effects of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on Turkish Economy," MPRA Paper 51900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Toke S. Aidt & Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2007. "Election Results and Opportunistic Policies: An Integrated Approach," NIPE Working Papers 24/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    10. Miklós Szanyi, 2010. "Industrial Clusters: Concepts and Empirical Evidence from East-Central Europe," EIIW Discussion paper disbei181, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    11. Buhara Aslan & Merve Mavus Kutuk & Arif Oduncu, 2015. "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership: Policy Options of China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(6), pages 22-43, November.
    12. Chun‐ping Chang & Yung‐hsiang Ying & Meng‐chi Hsieh, 2009. "Impact Of Macroeconomic Conditions On Government Popularity: An Ecowas Investigation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 28-44, March.
    13. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
    14. Aichele Rahel & Felbermayr Gabriel J. & Heiland Inga, 2016. "TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(6), pages 639-664, December.
    15. Paul Welfens, 2016. "Overcoming the euro crisis and prospects for a political union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 59-103, January.
    16. Paul J.J. Welfens & Tony Irawan, 2014. "Trade and Foreign Direct Investment: New Theoretical Approach and Empirical Findings for US Exports and European Exports," EIIW Discussion paper disbei204, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    17. Spolaore, Enrico & Wacziarg, Romain, 2014. "Long-Term Barriers to Economic Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 3, pages 121-176, Elsevier.
    18. Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Mario Larch, 2014. "Transatlantic Free Trade: Questions and Answers from the Vantage Point of Trade Theory," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(04), pages 03-17, January.
    19. Pietrzyck, Katja & Petersen, Brigitte & Jarzębowski, Sebastian, 2018. "The Role of quality management in the context of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Part nership (TTIP): the case of the polish Agri-food sector," Problems of Agricultural Economics / Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej 276627, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).
    20. Toke Aidt & Francisco Veiga & Linda Veiga, 2011. "Election results and opportunistic policies: A new test of the rational political business cycle model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 21-44, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:13:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-016-0361-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.