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Exchange rate and long run equilibrium in transition economies

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  • Jordi Pons
  • Ma Lacasta

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to calculate pruchasing power parity rates and the real exchange rate using several methods of calculation to estimate long-run equilibrium real exchange rates in transition economies, mainly in Eastern European countries considered in transition, such as Poland. The authors calculate different measures of exchange rate misalignment (absolute and relative deviations from long-run equilibrium). Each measure is calculated using different price indices, which include consumer price indices, GDP deflactor, and unit labor cost. The expected values of these variables are used. To calculate the long-run equilibrium, different methods such as an error correction equation and a forward-looking model are utilized, and again, the expected values of the variables are introduced along with new variables. The estimation of the long-run cointegration equation of the equilibrium real exchange rate and the corresponding dynamic error correction specification strongly corroborates the model and produced fairly consistent results across the countries under study. Using appropriated proxies, the estimated long run equations were used to derive indices of the equilibrium real exchange rate. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Jordi Pons & Ma Lacasta, 2003. "Exchange rate and long run equilibrium in transition economies," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 9(1), pages 35-47, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:9:y:2003:i:1:p:35-47:10.1007/bf02295299
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02295299
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
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    5. Dariusz Rosati, 1996. "Exchange rate policies during transition from plan to market," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(1), pages 159-184, May.
    6. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-174, March.
    7. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 1988. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior in Developing Countries: The Cross Country Evidence," UCLA Economics Working Papers 510, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1992. "The Economic Transformation of Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 5-19.
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    Cited by:

    1. Khuram Shafi & Liu Hua & Amna Nazeer & Zahra Idrees, 2015. "Behavior of Exchange Rate Volatility: Once Again in Action," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 270-276, January.

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