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A Quick Method for Assessing Economic Damage Caused by Natural Disasters: An Epidemiological Approach

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  • Mampei Hayashi

Abstract

In the aftermath of any natural disaster, a quick assessment of economic damage is called for, without which recovery planning and fiscal budgeting is impossible. What is customarily done as damage accounting is to use some aggregation by parts method, which is predisposed to commit double counting, omission, and bureaucratic inconsistencies. As an alternative, we propose to work with a social epidemiological model. First, we present a result by means of a log linear model which shows evidence of hazard factors and vulnerability factors at work. We then simplify the model by deleting the variables that are not significant in a linear formulation. Lastly, we give our estimate of economic damage for the case of the North East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 11, 2011 and alert that the true damage may well be the double of government’s estimate. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2012

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  • Mampei Hayashi, 2012. "A Quick Method for Assessing Economic Damage Caused by Natural Disasters: An Epidemiological Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(4), pages 417-427, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:18:y:2012:i:4:p:417-427:10.1007/s11294-012-9367-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-012-9367-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eduardo Cavallo & Andrew Powell & Oscar Becerra, 2010. "Estimating the Direct Economic Damages of the Earthquake in Haiti," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(546), pages 298-312, August.
    2. Eduardo Cavallo & Andrew Powell & Oscar Becerra, 2010. "Estimating the Direct Economic Damages of the Earthquake in Haiti," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(546), pages 298-312, 08.
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    Cited by:

    1. Toshihiko HAYASHI, 2013. "Is It Abenomics or Post-Disaster Recovery? A Counterfactual Analysis," APIR Discussion Paper Series 1002527, Asia Pacific Institute of Research.
    2. Xue Jin & Xiaoxia Shi & Jintian Gao & Tongbin Xu & Kedong Yin, 2018. "Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Chonglan Guo & Xiaoxia Xu & Zaiwu Gong, 2014. "Co-integration analysis between GDP and meteorological catastrophic factors of Nanjing city based on the buffer operator," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(2), pages 1091-1105, March.
    4. Toshihiko Hayashi, 2014. "Is it Abenomics or Post-Disaster Recovery? A Counterfactual Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 23-31, February.

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