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Impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies on transmission dynamics of dengue fever: a model-based analysis

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  • Gerhart Knerer
  • Christine Currie
  • Sally Brailsford

Abstract

Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions. It is an important public health problem with a considerable and often under-valued disease burden in terms of frequency, cost and quality-of-life. Recent literature reviews have documented the development of mathematical models of dengue fever both to identify important characteristics for future model development as well as to assess the impact of dengue control interventions. Such reviews highlight the importance of short-term cross-protection; antibody-dependent enhancement; and seasonality (in terms of both favourable and unfavourable conditions for mosquitoes). The compartmental model extends work by Bartley (2002) and combines the following factors: seasonality, age-structure, consecutive infection by all four serotypes, cross-protection and immune enhancement, as well as combined vector-host transmission. The model is used to represent dengue transmission dynamics using parameters appropriate for Thailand and to assess the potential impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies including routine and catch-up vaccination strategies on disease dynamics. When seasonality and temporary cross-protection between serotypes are included, the model is able to approximate the observed incidence of dengue fever in Thailand. We find vaccination to be the most effective single intervention, albeit with imperfect efficacy (30.2 %) and limited duration of protection. However, in combination, control interventions and vaccination exhibit a marked impact on dengue fever transmission. This study shows that an imperfect vaccine can be a useful weapon in reducing disease spread within the community, although it will be most effective when promoted as one of several strategies for combating dengue fever transmission. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhart Knerer & Christine Currie & Sally Brailsford, 2015. "Impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies on transmission dynamics of dengue fever: a model-based analysis," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 205-217, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:18:y:2015:i:2:p:205-217
    DOI: 10.1007/s10729-013-9263-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tay, Chai Jian & Fakhruddin, Muhammad & Fauzi, Ilham Saiful & Teh, Su Yean & Syamsuddin, Muhammad & Nuraini, Nuning & Soewono, Edy, 2022. "Dengue epidemiological characteristic in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, Malaysia," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 489-504.
    2. Abidemi, A. & Abd Aziz, M.I. & Ahmad, R., 2020. "Vaccination and vector control effect on dengue virus transmission dynamics: Modelling and simulation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Gerhart Knerer & Christine S M Currie & Sally C Brailsford, 2020. "The economic impact and cost-effectiveness of combined vector-control and dengue vaccination strategies in Thailand: results from a dynamic transmission model," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-32, October.
    4. Anggriani, N. & Tasman, H. & Ndii, M.Z. & Supriatna, A.K. & Soewono, E. & Siregar, E, 2019. "The effect of reinfection with the same serotype on dengue transmission dynamics," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 349(C), pages 62-80.

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