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Managing Wildlife Faced with Pathogen Risks Involving Multi-Stable Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Richard D. Horan

    (Michigan State University)

  • David Finnoff

    (University of Wyoming)

  • Kevin Berry

    (University of Alaska Anchorage)

  • Carson Reeling

    (Western Michigan University)

  • Jason F. Shogren

    (University of Wyoming)

Abstract

Most models designed to understand how to manage infected wildlife systems with bioeconomic multi-stability take the initial conditions as given, thereby treating pathogen invasion as unanticipated. We examine how ex ante management is an opportunity to influence the ex post conditions, which in turn affect the ex post optimal outcome. To capture these ex ante management choices, we extend the Poisson “collapse” model of Reed and Heras (Bull Math Biol 54:185–207, 1992) to allow for endogenous initial conditions and ex post multi-stability. We account for two uncertain processes: the introduction and establishment of the pathogen. Introduction is conditional on anthropogenic investments in prevention, and both random processes are conditional on how we manage the native population to provide natural prevention of invasion and natural insurance against establishment placing the system in an undesirable basin of attraction. We find that both multi-stability of the invaded system and these uncertainty processes can create economic non-convexities that yield multiple candidate solutions to the ex ante optimization problem. Additionally, we illustrate how the nature of natural protection against introduction and establishment risks can play an important role in the allocation of anthropogenic investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard D. Horan & David Finnoff & Kevin Berry & Carson Reeling & Jason F. Shogren, 2018. "Managing Wildlife Faced with Pathogen Risks Involving Multi-Stable Outcomes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(3), pages 713-730, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:70:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10640-018-0227-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-018-0227-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard D. Horan & Eli P. Fenichel, 2007. "Economics and Ecology of Managing Emerging Infectious Animal Diseases," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1232-1238.
    2. Chakraborty, Shankha & Papageorgiou, Chris & Pérez Sebastián, Fidel, 2010. "Diseases, infection dynamics, and development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 859-872, October.
    3. Richard D. Horan & Christopher A. Wolf, 2005. "The Economics of Managing Infectious Wildlife Disease," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 537-551.
    4. Berry, Kevin & Finnoff, David & Horan, Richard D. & Shogren, Jason F., 2015. "Managing the endogenous risk of disease outbreaks with non-constant background risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 166-179.
    5. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 549-573.
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    7. Finnoff, David & Horan, Richard D. & Shogren, Jason F. & Reeling, Carson & Berry, Kevin, 2016. "Natural vs anthropogenic risk reduction: Facing invasion risks involving multi-stable outcomes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 113-123.
    8. Spence, A Michael & Starrett, David, 1975. "Most Rapid Approach Paths in Accumulation Problems," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(2), pages 388-403, June.
    9. John Tschirhart, 2009. "Integrated Ecological-Economic Models," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 381-407, September.
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    11. Perrings, Charles, 2005. "Mitigation and adaptation strategies for the control of biological invasions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 315-325, February.
    12. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Berry, Kevin & Fenichel, Eli P. & Robinson, Brian E., 2019. "The ecological insurance trap," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous risk; Optimal control; Pathogen invasion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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