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Heterogeneous Beliefs and Climate Catastrophes

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  • Tatiana Kiseleva

    (Free University Amsterdam)

Abstract

We study how heterogeneous beliefs about the causes and extent of global warming affect local mitigation and adaptation strategies and therefore global climate dynamics. Local policies are determined by expectations of policy makers about future climate. There are three types of expectations: strong skeptic, weak skeptic and ‘science-based’. Strong skeptics deny human-induced climate change and a possibility of a climate catastrophe. Weak skeptics believe that industrial emissions cause global warming, but deny catastrophic climate change. Science-based policy makers, considering the warning of the scientific community, account for both: human influence on climate and possible catastrophic shifts. Aggregate behavior of policy makers determines the total emission level which influences global climate dynamics. The paper argues that even if there are only skeptical policy makers the climate catastrophe can still be avoided.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatiana Kiseleva, 2016. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Climate Catastrophes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(3), pages 599-622, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:65:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10640-016-0036-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-016-0036-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Grant R. McDermott, 2021. "Skeptic priors and climate consensus," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Natali Hritonenko & Victoria Hritonenko & Yuri Yatsenko, 2020. "Games with Adaptation and Mitigation," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Marcel Nutz & Florian Stebegg, 2021. "Climate Change Adaptation under Heterogeneous Beliefs," Papers 2101.08424, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    4. Marcel Nutz & Florian Stebegg, 2022. "Climate change adaptation under heterogeneous beliefs," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 16, number 3, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptation; Catastrophes; Climate change; Heterogeneous beliefs; Skepticism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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