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Impact Evaluation of Forest Conservation Programs: Benefit-Cost Analysis, Without the Economics

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  • Jeffrey R. Vincent

    (Duke University)

Abstract

Economists are increasingly using impact evaluation methods to measure the effectiveness of forest conservation programs. Theoretical analysis of two complementary economic models demonstrates that the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) typically reported by these studies can be related to an economic measure of program performance only under very restrictive conditions. This is because the ATT is usually expressed in purely physical terms (e.g., avoided deforestation) and ignores heterogeneity in the costs and benefits of conservation programs. For the same reasons, clinical trials are a misleading analogy for the evaluation of conservation programs. To be more useful for economic analyses of conservation programs, impact evaluations should work toward developing measures of program outcomes that are economically more relevant, data that would enable the evaluation of impacts on forest degradation (not just deforestation) and primary forests (not forests in general), better estimates of spatially disaggregated treatment effects (not program-wide averages), and better information on the accuracy of estimated treatment effects as predictors of future risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey R. Vincent, 2016. "Impact Evaluation of Forest Conservation Programs: Benefit-Cost Analysis, Without the Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(2), pages 395-408, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:63:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10640-015-9896-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-015-9896-y
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    Cited by:

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    3. Francisco Fontes & Charles Palmer, 2017. "Was von Thünen right? Cattle intensification and deforestation in Brazil," GRI Working Papers 261, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    4. Giudice, Renzo & Börner, Jan, 2021. "Benefits and costs of incentive-based forest conservation in the Peruvian Amazon," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Palmer, Charles & Taschini, Luca & Laing, Timothy, 2017. "Getting more ‘carbon bang’ for your ‘buck’ in Acre State, Brazil," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 214-227.
    6. Nordén, Anna & Coria, Jessica & Villalobos, Laura, 2016. "Evaluation of the Impact of Forest Certification on Environmental Outcomes in Sweden," Working Papers in Economics 657, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    7. Wumeng He & Orapan Nabangchang & Krista Erdman & Alex C. A. Vanko & Prapti Poudel & Chandra Giri & Jeffrey R. Vincent, 2023. "Inferring Economic Impacts from a Program’s Physical Outcomes: An Application to Forest Protection in Thailand," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(3), pages 845-876, March.
    8. Jones, Kelly W. & Mayer, Alex & Von Thaden, Juan & Berry, Z. Carter & López-Ramírez, Sergio & Salcone, Jacob & Manson, Robert H. & Asbjornsen, Heidi, 2020. "Measuring the net benefits of payments for hydrological services programs in Mexico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

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