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‘Old’ Europe’s wage dynamics and trade imbalances: Is there a link?

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  • Leon Podkaminer

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)

Abstract

No evidence is found that gains in relative labour productivity have had a positive effect on the trade balance/GDP ratio for the ‘old’ EU members (excluding Germany) from 1961 to 2014. Rising relative wage rate is shown to have had strong—and negative—effects on the trade balance/GDP ratio for the EU-14, at least in the longer run. It follows that external rebalancing may be achieved through a sufficiently strong fall in the relative wage rates, without productivity changes having a role to play. This is not to claim that the EU-14 (and its members suffering trade deficits in particular) ought to attempt the devastating policy of ‘internal devaluation’. A constructive alternative would be to achieve the fall in the relative wage rates through faster growth of German nominal wage rates. Whether that alternative is practicable is another matter. But it can be argued that without that alternative being followed the European Union will remain a stagnant area plagued by recurrent crises caused by imbalanced trade among its Member States.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon Podkaminer, 2018. "‘Old’ Europe’s wage dynamics and trade imbalances: Is there a link?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 395-408, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:45:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9365-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-016-9365-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hubert Gabrisch, 2017. "Explaining trade imbalances in the euro area: Liquidity preference and the role of finance," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(281), pages 155-184.
    2. Giovanni Covi, 2021. "Trade imbalances within the Euro Area: two regions, two demand regimes," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 181-221, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Union; Trade imbalances; Relative wages; Relative productivities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances

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