IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/ecopln/v57y2024i4d10.1007_s10644-024-09725-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic policy uncertainty and remittances: mediating role of foreign exchange rate

Author

Listed:
  • Waqas Bin Khidmat

    (Air University Islamabad, Aerospace and Aviation Campus Kamra)

  • Nayar Rafique

    (Air University Islamabad, Aerospace and Aviation Campus Kamra)

  • Muhammad Umar

    (Wuhan College)

Abstract

Recent studies provide evidence that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is linked with the workers' remittances, yet the channel through which EPU affects the workers' remittances has been less explored. To understand the above said channel, this study uses monthly data from Pakistan, which ranges from January 2015 to November 2022. Based on the results obtained by using different econometric techniques, this study provides evidence that the foreign exchange rate mediates the relationship between EPU (both global and domestic) and workers' remittances. Additionally, it finds that the domestic EPU mediates the relationship between the global EPU and the exchange rate. Interestingly, the results highlight the limited influence of altruistic motives on remittances instead the findings suggest the prevalence of self-interest as the dominant driving factor behind workers’ remittances in the case of Pakistan. The findings of this study have implications for policymakers and stakeholders in formulating effective strategies to harness the potential of workers’ remittances for economic development and welfare enhancement in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Waqas Bin Khidmat & Nayar Rafique & Muhammad Umar, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and remittances: mediating role of foreign exchange rate," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-30, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:57:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-024-09725-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09725-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10644-024-09725-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10644-024-09725-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abokyi, Eric, 2023. "Effects of remittances on financial inclusion gender gap in developing countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 1-24.
    2. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan, 2019. "Cointegration between macroeconomic factors and the exchange rate USD/CNY," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Dean Yang, 2008. "International Migration, Remittances and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants’ Exchange Rate Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 591-630, April.
    4. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    5. Bartsch, Zachary, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and dollar-pound exchange rate return volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    6. P. Jijin & Alok Kumar Mishra & M. Nithin, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of remittances to India," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 1229-1248, May.
    7. Chew Ging Lee & Shi-Min How, 2023. "The impacts of domestic and global economic policy uncertainties on the hotel room demand: Evidence from Singapore," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 1121-1129, June.
    8. Hou, Xiaohui & Wang, Tengyu & Ma, Caoyuan, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate fraud," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 97-110.
    9. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey, 2017. "Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Effect of Remittances on Economic Growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 103-125, February.
    10. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    11. Kido, Yosuke, 2016. "On the link between the US economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 49-52.
    12. Lucas, Robert E B & Stark, Oded, 1985. "Motivations to Remit: Evidence from Botswana," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 901-918, October.
    13. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    14. Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Hasan Güngör & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams, 2019. "Unraveling the Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure in BRIC Countries: Evidence From Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(2), pages 21582440198, June.
    15. Canh, Nguyen Phuc & Binh, Nguyen Thanh & Thanh, Su Dinh & Schinckus, Christophe, 2020. "Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 159-172.
    16. Fujitani, Ryosuke & Hattori, Masazumi & Yasuda, Yukihiro, 2023. "Domestic and international effects of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment and strategic cash holdings: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Chen, Zhongfei & Chortareas, Georgios & Li, Kexin, 2023. "Global economic policy Uncertainty, gross capital Inflows, and the mitigating role of Macroprudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    18. Rana Yassir Hussain & Namarta Kumari Bajaj & Sonia Kumari & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2023. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Foreign Remittances? Linear and Non-linear ARDL Approach in BRIC Economies," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2183642-218, December.
    19. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    20. Xuejun Jin & Ziqing Chen & Xiaolan Yang, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1291-1318, March.
    21. MAWUSI, Charles, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Remittances Flow: Heterogeneity Matters," MPRA Paper 103097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Hem C. Basnet & Josiah Baker & Ficawoyi Donou-Adonsou, 2022. "Workers' remittances in Central America: where does the money go?," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(5), pages 765-779, February.
    23. Biswas, Sonny & Zhai, Wei, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cross-border lending," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    24. Kiryoung Lee & Yoontae Jeon & Laleh Samarbakhsh & Insik Kim, 2021. "Chinese economic policy uncertainty and U.S. corporate investment," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1519-1528, December.
    25. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Affandi, Yoga, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and financial stability–Is there a relation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1018-1029.
    26. Daivi Rodima-Taylor & William W. Grimes, 2019. "International remittance rails as infrastructures: embeddedness, innovation and financial access in developing economies," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 839-862, September.
    27. Pui Sun Tam, 2018. "Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3718-3734, July.
    28. Abbas, Shujaat, 2020. "Impact of oil prices on remittances to Pakistan from GCC countries: evidence from panel asymmetric analysis," MPRA Paper 107246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Song, Lu & Tian, Gengyu & Jiang, Yonghong, 2022. "Connectedness of commodity, exchange rate and categorical economic policy uncertainties — Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    3. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Chen, Peng & Miao, Xinru & Tee, Kai-Hong, 2023. "Do gold prices respond more to uncertainty shocks at the zero lower bound?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    5. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Omer Faruk Derindag & Nuri Hacievliyagil & Mehmet Canakci, 2022. "Exchange rate response to economic policy uncertainty: evidence beyond asymmetry," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Grossmann, Axel & Ngo, Thanh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and ADR mispricing," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    9. Karanasos, M. & Yfanti, S., 2021. "On the Economic fundamentals behind the Dynamic Equicorrelations among Asset classes: Global evidence from Equities, Real estate, and Commodities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    11. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    12. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2019. "Response of the Macroeconomy to Uncertainty Shocks:the Risk Premium Channel," 2019 Meeting Papers 1567, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Chow Sheung-Chi & Cunado Juncal & Gupta Rangan & Wong Wing-Keung, 2018. "Causal relationships between economic policy uncertainty and housing market returns in China and India: evidence from linear and nonlinear panel and time series models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 1-15, April.
    14. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    15. Marina Azzimonti, 2021. "Partisan Conflict, News, and Investors' Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 971-1003, August.
    16. Azzimonti, Marina, 2018. "Partisan conflict and private investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 114-131.
    17. Eksi, Ozan & Onur Tas, Bedri Kamil, 2022. "Time-varying effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    18. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    19. Bulut, Mustafa & Karasoy, Hatice Gökçe, 2016. "Para Politikası Belirsizliği Altında Aktarım Mekanizması: Türkiye Örneği [Transmission Mechanism Under Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Case of Turkey]," MPRA Paper 71215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Shinohara, Takeshi & Okuda, Tatsushi & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2021. "Characteristics of Uncertainty Indices in the Macroeconomy," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 72(3), pages 246-267, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:57:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-024-09725-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.