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A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process

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  • Gilles Dufrenot
  • Adelya Ospanova
  • Alain Sand-Zantman

Abstract

This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a market economy. The policy simulation potential of the model is illustrated by five types of simulations: interest rate shocks, foreign direct investment shocks, world oil price shocks, foreign demand shocks and nominal wages shocks. These sets of simulations show the importance of foreign direct investments in terms of theirs global positive effect, as well as the demand effect of an increase in the wages. We also find that effect of the tight monetary policy is not unambiguous; we argue that in some cases it is not the most efficient policy instrument to sustain the economy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Dufrenot & Adelya Ospanova & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2014. "A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-39, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:47:y:2014:i:1:p:1-39
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-012-9126-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 1999/073, International Monetary Fund.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Mr. Eivind Tandberg & S. Ramamurthy, 2002. "Treasury Reform in Kazakhstan: Lessons for Other Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/129, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Wyplosz, Charles, 2000. "Ten Years of Transformation: Macroeconomic Lessons," CEPR Discussion Papers 2254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 2000/030, International Monetary Fund.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2003/211, International Monetary Fund.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Institutions Matter in Transition, But so do Policies," IMF Working Papers 2000/070, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim Alnafrah & Sulaiman Mouselli, 2020. "Constructing the Reconstruction Process: a Smooth Transition Towards Knowledge Society and Economy in Post-Conflict Syria," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 931-948, September.
    2. Thorsten Janus, 2020. "Terms of trade volatility, exports, and GDP," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 25-38, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transition economies; Kazakhstan; Macroeconomic stabilization; Central Asian CIS countries; O11; P20; P51;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

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