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Evaluating CPB’s Forecasts

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  • Philip Franses

Abstract

This paper analyzes forecasts, for ten key annually observed economic variables for the Netherlands, created by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) for 1971–2007. These CPB forecasts are all manually modified model forecasts, where the model is a (very) large multi-equation macro model. The CPB forecasts are held against real-time forecasts obtained from simple autoregressive time series models, and for seven of the ten cases, CPB’s forecasts are significantly more accurate. Combining CPB’s forecasts with the real time autoregressive forecasts shows that four of the ten combined forecasts are significantly better than CPB’s forecasts, and seven of the ten are better than the time series forecasts. This suggests that CPB’s manual adjustment efforts could perhaps be directed to modifying simple model forecasts and not the forecasts from the own large macro model. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Franses, 2014. "Evaluating CPB’s Forecasts," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 215-221, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:162:y:2014:i:3:p:215-221
    DOI: 10.1007/s10645-014-9230-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi‐Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, September.
    2. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    3. Adam Elbourne & Henk Kranendonk & Rob Luginbuhl & Bert Smid & Martin Vromans, 2008. "Evaluating CPB's published GDP growth forecasts; a comparison with individual and pooled VAR based forecasts," CPB Document 172, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Franses,Philip Hans, 2014. "Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107441613.
    5. Franses, Philip Hans & Kranendonk, Henk C. & Lanser, Debby, 2011. "One model and various experts: Evaluating Dutch macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 482-495.
    6. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
    7. Franses,Philip Hans, 2014. "Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107081598.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macro-economic forecasting; Forecast accuracy; Forecast evaluation; E27;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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