IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v61y2023i2d10.1007_s10614-021-10219-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating Wavelet Decomposition and Fuzzy Transformation for Improving the Accuracy of Forecasting Crude Oil Price

Author

Listed:
  • Faramarz Saghi

    (Urmia University of Technology)

  • Mustafa Jahangoshai Rezaee

    (Urmia University of Technology)

Abstract

In this paper, hybrid methods are proposed to predict OPEC crude oil. In the pre-processing step, the wavelet decomposition has been used to reduce the noise of time series, which divides the original data into five levels. Also, the fuzzy transform (F-transform) is applied for its potency of management uncertainty due to the fluctuation of data. F-transform is for decomposing the time series data and afterward, this decomposed data are employed on the ground of inputs. Because of the nonlinearity of the time series structure, integrating the mentioned proposed algorithms with the multilayer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, group method of data handling (GMDH), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and support vector regression (SVR) are applied for prediction of time series relevant to the crude oil price. By comparing the results of models, L5-ANFIS, L5-MLP, L5-GMDH, L5-SVR are more appropriate than others for predicting OPEC crude oil price.

Suggested Citation

  • Faramarz Saghi & Mustafa Jahangoshai Rezaee, 2023. "Integrating Wavelet Decomposition and Fuzzy Transformation for Improving the Accuracy of Forecasting Crude Oil Price," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 559-591, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:61:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-021-10219-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-021-10219-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10614-021-10219-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10614-021-10219-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hao, Xianfeng & Zhao, Yuyang & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using robust regression models with regularization constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Dadkhah, Mojtaba & Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa & Zare Chavoshi, Ahmad, 2018. "Short-term power output forecasting of hourly operation in power plant based on climate factors and effects of wind direction and wind speed," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 775-788.
    3. Urolagin, Siddhaling & Sharma, Nikhil & Datta, Tapan Kumar, 2021. "A combined architecture of multivariate LSTM with Mahalanobis and Z-Score transformations for oil price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. Noemi Nava & Tiziana Di Matteo & Tomaso Aste, 2018. "Financial Time Series Forecasting Using Empirical Mode Decomposition and Support Vector Regression," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Wang, Jun & Cao, Junxing & Yuan, Shan & Cheng, Ming, 2021. "Short-term forecasting of natural gas prices by using a novel hybrid method based on a combination of the CEEMDAN-SE-and the PSO-ALS-optimized GRU network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    6. Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2021. "Real-time electricity price forecasting of wind farms with deep neural network transfer learning and hybrid datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    7. Sharma, Vishal & Yang, Dazhi & Walsh, Wilfred & Reindl, Thomas, 2016. "Short term solar irradiance forecasting using a mixed wavelet neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 481-492.
    8. Jiang, Ping & Liu, Zhenkun & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Lifang, 2021. "Decomposition-selection-ensemble forecasting system for energy futures price forecasting based on multi-objective version of chaos game optimization algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Agrawal, Rahul Kumar & Muchahary, Frankle & Tripathi, Madan Mohan, 2019. "Ensemble of relevance vector machines and boosted trees for electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 540-548.
    10. Liu, Weiping & Wang, Chengzhu & Li, Yonggang & Liu, Yishun & Huang, Keke, 2021. "Ensemble forecasting for product futures prices using variational mode decomposition and artificial neural networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Nava, Noemi & Di Matteo, Tiziana & Aste, Tomaso, 2018. "Financial time series forecasting using empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91028, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qin Lu & Jingwen Liao & Kechi Chen & Yanhui Liang & Yu Lin, 2024. "Predicting Natural Gas Prices Based on a Novel Hybrid Model with Variational Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 639-678, February.
    2. Tim Leung & Theodore Zhao, 2022. "Adaptive complementary ensemble EMD and energy-frequency spectra of cryptocurrency prices," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Engin Tas & Ayca Hatice Atli, 2024. "Stock Price Ranking by Learning Pairwise Preferences," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 513-528, February.
    4. Wenting Zhao & Juanjuan Zhao & Xilong Yao & Zhixin Jin & Pan Wang, 2019. "A Novel Adaptive Intelligent Ensemble Model for Forecasting Primary Energy Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-28, April.
    5. Wu, Chunying & Wang, Jianzhou & Hao, Yan, 2022. "Deterministic and uncertainty crude oil price forecasting based on outlier detection and modified multi-objective optimization algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Meng, Anbo & Wang, Peng & Zhai, Guangsong & Zeng, Cong & Chen, Shun & Yang, Xiaoyi & Yin, Hao, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting with high penetration of renewable energy using attention-based LSTM network trained by crisscross optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    7. Flavio Barboza & Geraldo Nunes Silva & José Augusto Fiorucci, 2023. "A review of artificial intelligence quality in forecasting asset prices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1708-1728, November.
    8. Tim Leung & Theodore Zhao, 2021. "Multiscale Decomposition and Spectral Analysis of Sector ETF Price Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-22, October.
    9. Ouyang, Zisheng & Lu, Min & Ouyang, Zhongzhe & Zhou, Xuewei & Wang, Ren, 2024. "A novel integrated method for improving the forecasting accuracy of crude oil: ESMD-CFastICA-BiLSTM-Attention," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Dionne, Georges & Koumou, Gilles Boevi, 2018. "Machine Learning and Risk Management: SVDD Meets RQE," Working Papers 18-6, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    11. Chai, Shanglei & Li, Qiang & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2024. "Forecasting electricity prices from the state-of-the-art modeling technology and the price determinant perspectives," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    12. Tim Leung & Theodore Zhao, 2021. "Financial Time Series Analysis and Forecasting with HHT Feature Generation and Machine Learning," Papers 2105.10871, arXiv.org.
    13. Huang, Haichi & Bian, Chong & Wu, Mengdan & An, Dong & Yang, Shunkun, 2024. "A novel integrated SOC–SOH estimation framework for whole-life-cycle lithium-ion batteries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    14. Haider Ali & Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira, 2021. "Modeling Dynamic Multifractal Efficiency of US Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, September.
    15. Hu, Yahui & Guo, Yingshi & Fu, Rui, 2023. "A novel wind speed forecasting combined model using variational mode decomposition, sparse auto-encoder and optimized fuzzy cognitive mapping network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    16. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2022. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A robust weighted least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market returns: Enhanced moving average technical indicators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Lei, Yang & Chen, Yuming & Chen, Jinghai & Liu, Xinyan & Wu, Xiaoqin & Chen, Yuqiu, 2023. "A novel modeling strategy for the prediction on the concentration of H2 and CH4 in raw coke oven gas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    20. Bazine, Hasnaa & Mabrouki, Mustapha, 2019. "Chaotic dynamics applied in time prediction of photovoltaic production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1255-1265.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:61:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-021-10219-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.