IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v60y2022i2d10.1007_s10614-021-10153-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Meets Ensemble Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Ivana Lolić

    (University of Zagreb)

  • Petar Sorić

    (University of Zagreb)

  • Marija Logarušić

    (University of Zagreb)

Abstract

We utilize a battery of ensemble learning techniques [ensemble linear regression (LM), random forest], as well as two gradient boosting techniques [Gradient Boosting Decision Tree and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)] to scrutinize the possibilities of enhancing the predictive accuracy of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index. Applied to a data-rich environment of the Newsbank media database, our LM and XGBoost assessments mostly outperform the other two ensemble learning procedures, as well as the original EPU index. Our LM and XGBoost estimates bring EPU closer to the stylized facts of uncertainty than other uncertainty estimates. LM and XGBoost indicators are more countercyclical and have more pronounced leading properties. We find that EPU is more strongly correlated to financial volatility measures than to consumers’ assessments of uncertainty. This corroborates that the media place a much higher weight on the financial sector than on the economic issues of consumers. Further on, we considerably widen the scope of search terms included in the calculation of EPU index. Using ensemble learning techniques on such a rich set of keywords, we mostly manage to outperform the standard EPU in terms of correlation with standard uncertainty proxies. We also find that the predictive accuracy of EPU index can be considerably increased using a more diversified set of uncertainty-related terms than the original EPU framework. Our estimates perform much better in a monthly setting (targeting the industrial production growth) than targeting quarterly GDP growth. This speaks in favor of uncertainty as a purely short-term phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivana Lolić & Petar Sorić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Meets Ensemble Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 401-437, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:60:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-021-10153-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-021-10153-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10614-021-10153-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10614-021-10153-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    3. Xie, Fangzhou, 2020. "Wasserstein Index Generation Model: Automatic generation of time-series index with application to Economic Policy Uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    4. Asgharian, Hossein & Christiansen, Charlotte & Hou, Ai Jun, 2015. "Effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on the stock and bond markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 10-16.
    5. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2018. "Outside the Box: Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Great Recession and Beyond," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    6. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    7. Lee, Seojin, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in the US: Does It Matter for Korea?," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 22(1), pages 29-54, March.
    8. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty predict the Bitcoin returns? An empirical investigation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-149.
    9. Troy Davig & Andrew Foerster, 2019. "Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1857-1887, October.
    10. Colombo, Valentina, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 39-42.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Joseph E. Engelberg & Christopher A. Parsons, 2011. "The Causal Impact of Media in Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 67-97, February.
    13. Goodell, John W. & McGee, Richard J. & McGroarty, Frank, 2020. "Election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty: A prediction market analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    14. Montebruno, Piero & Bennett, Robert & Smith, Harry & van Lieshout, Carry, 2019. "Machine learning classification of entrepreneurs in British historical census data," MPRA Paper 100469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    16. Yu, Honghai & Fang, Libing & Sun, Wencong, 2018. "Forecasting performance of global economic policy uncertainty for volatility of Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 931-940.
    17. Nilavongse, Rachatar & Rubaszek, Michał, & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty shocks, economic activity, and exchange rate adjustments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    18. Saltzman, Bennett & Yung, Julieta, 2018. "A machine learning approach to identifying different types of uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 58-62.
    19. Claeskens,Gerda & Hjort,Nils Lid, 2008. "Model Selection and Model Averaging," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521852258, January.
    20. Sen Wang & Yanni Zeng & Jiaying Yao & Hao Zhang, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty, monetary policy, and housing price in China," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 235-252, January.
    21. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2018. "Outside the Box: Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Great Recession and Beyond," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 121-146, Fall.
    22. Liu, Li & Zhang, Tao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 99-105.
    23. Azqueta-Gavaldón, Andrés, 2017. "Developing news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty index with unsupervised machine learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 47-50.
    24. David Cronin & Robert Kelly & Bernard Kennedy, 2011. "Money growth, uncertainty and macroeconomic activity: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 155-167, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Morita, Hiroshi & Ono, Taiki, 2024. "COVID-19 uncertainty index in Japan: Newspaper-based measures and economic activities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 390-403.
    2. Viktoriia Naboka-Krell, 2023. "Construction and Analysis of Uncertainty Indices based on Multilingual Text Representations," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202310, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhanu Pratap & Nalin Priyaranjan, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty: a Google trends-based analysis for India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1599-1625, October.
    2. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Marija Hruska & Mirjana Cizmesija, 2024. "Traditional or social media: which capture employment better?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 48(4), pages 399-419.
    4. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    5. Caldara, Dario & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Gilchrist, Simon & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 185-207.
    6. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Michael Ryan, 2020. "A Narrative Approach to Creating Instruments with Unstructured and Voluminous Text: An Application to Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers in Economics 20/10, University of Waikato.
    8. Guo, Junjie & Li, Youshu & Shao, Qinglong, 2022. "Cross-category spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty between China and the US: Time and frequency evidence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Kundu, Srikanta & Paul, Amartya, 2022. "Effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock market return and volatility under heterogeneous market characteristics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 597-612.
    10. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    11. Graziano Moramarco, 2022. "Measuring Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Cross-Country Uncertainty Spillovers," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, December.
    12. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis, 2019. "Forecasting European economic policy uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 94-114, February.
    13. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2022. "Uncertainty Before and During COVID-19: A Survey," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0279, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy," Post-Print hal-01549625, HAL.
    15. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2018. "Uncertainty and the macroeconomy: evidence from an uncertainty composite indicator," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(10), pages 1093-1107, February.
    16. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:31-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
    18. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Uncertainty and monetary policy in the US: A journey into nonlinear territory," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1106-1128, July.
    20. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    21. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty index; Textual analysis; Ensemble learning; Random forest model; Gradient boosting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:60:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-021-10153-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.