IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/atlecj/v50y2022i1d10.1007_s11293-022-09744-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-Term Household Economic Stress Effects on Retail Activity in El Paso, Texas

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas M. Fullerton

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Patricia Arellano-Olague

    (ADP)

Abstract

Economic stress indices are beginning to be developed as gauges of business cycle conditions for regional economies. Although the popularity of these metrics is increasing, there have been only a small number of studies that analyze the effectiveness of these tools for monitoring regional economic developments. This effort employs data for one such index that is maintained by the University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project. The sample period covers December 2002 through March 2019. Specific components of the index include inflation, unemployment, and housing prices. Estimation results indicate that the effects of any changes in economic stress levels may take approximately 16 months to be fully experienced within the El Paso retail sector. Simulation results indicate that a one-time, 1-point increase in economic stress leads to a $2.987 million decrease in monthly retail sales.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. Fullerton & Patricia Arellano-Olague, 2022. "Short-Term Household Economic Stress Effects on Retail Activity in El Paso, Texas," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 50(1), pages 27-35, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:50:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11293-022-09744-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-022-09744-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11293-022-09744-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11293-022-09744-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michal Grinstein-Weiss & Clinton Key & Shenyang Guo & Yeong Hun Yeo & Krista Holub, 2013. "Homeownership and Wealth among Low- and Moderate-Income Households," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 259-279, April.
    2. Robert J. MacCulloch & Rafael Di Tella & Andrew J. Oswald, 2001. "Preferences over Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence from Surveys of Happiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 335-341, March.
    3. Tang, Chor Foon & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2009. "New evidence from the misery index in the crime function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 112-115, February.
    4. Barbara Blake-Gonzalez & Richard J. Cebula & James V. Koch, 2021. "Drug-overdose death rates: the economic misery explanation and its alternatives," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(6), pages 730-741, February.
    5. Pflaumer, Peter, 1992. "Forecasting US population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 329-338, November.
    6. Pedro Niño & Roberto Coronado & Thomas Fullerton & Adam Walke, 2015. "Cross-border homicide impacts on economic activity in El Paso," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1543-1559, December.
    7. Thomas M. Fullerton & Ana P. Gutierrez-Zubiate, 2020. "Regional Household Economic Stress and Retail Sales Fluctuations," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(3), pages 23-34, September.
    8. Robert A Dye & Chad Sutherland, 2009. "A New Metric to Gauge Household Economic Stress: Improving on the Misery Index," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 109-113.
    9. Michael C. & Pao-Lin Tien, 2000. "Economic Discomfort and Consumer Sentiment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-8, Winter.
    10. Sergi, Bruno S. & Harjoto, Maretno Agus & Rossi, Fabrizio & Lee, Robert, 2021. "Do stock markets love misery? Evidence from the COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas M. Fullerton & Ana P. Gutierrez-Zubiate, 2020. "Regional Household Economic Stress and Retail Sales Fluctuations," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(3), pages 23-34, September.
    2. Josefa Ramoni-Perazzi & Giampaolo Orlandoni-Merli, 2013. "El índice de miseria corregido por informalidad: una aplicación al caso de Venezuela," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, December.
    3. Yadollah Dadgar & Rouhollah Nazari, 2018. "The impact of economic growth and good governance on misery index in Iranian economy," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 175-193, February.
    4. Ivan K. Cohen & Fabrizio Ferretti & Bryan McIntosh, 2014. "Decomposing the misery index: A dynamic approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carmen Lafuente, 2020. "Persistence of the Misery Index in African Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 825-841, February.
    6. Ajide Folorunsho M., 2019. "Institutional Quality, Economic Misery and Crime Rate in Nigeria," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 33(1), pages 170-182, January.
    7. Troy Lorde & Mahalia Jackman & Simon Naitram & Shane Lowe, 2016. "Does crime depend on the “state” of economic misery?," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(11), pages 1124-1134, November.
    8. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Misery on Main Street, victory on Wall Street: Economic discomfort and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Emmanuel Mensah & Joseph Kwadwo Tuffour & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2023. "Does macroeconomic misery index matter in the micro firm-level earnings Management – performance nexus? Evidence from dynamic Panel threshold regression," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 2289321-228, October.
    10. Das, Anupam & Brown, Leanora & Mcfarlane, Adian, 2023. "Economic Misery and Remittances in Jamaica," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 48(2), pages 33-52, June.
    11. Oliver Picek, 2017. "The "Magic Square" of Economic Policy measured by a Macroeconomic Performance Index," Working Papers 1702, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    12. Nicola Pontarollo & Silvia Ronchi & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "European Union regional discomfort before and after the crisis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 50(7), pages 1375-1380, October.
    13. Nestor Gandelman & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, 2009. "The impact of inflation and unemployment on subjective personal and country evaluations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(May), pages 107-126.
    14. Fernando Sánchez López, 2022. "Measuring the Effect of the Misery Index on International Tourist Departures: Empirical Evidence from Mexico," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
    15. Tugce Acar & Derya Topdag, 2022. "OECD Ulkelerinde Sefalet Endeksi ve Ekonomik Kalkinma Ekseninde Saglik Harcamalarinin Belirleyicileri: Toplamsal Olmayan Sabit Etkili Panel Kantil Regresyon Yaklasimi," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(82), pages 267-286, June.
    16. Abdul Saboor & Shumaila Sadiq & Atta Ullah Khan & Gulnaz Hameed, 2017. "Dynamic Reflections of Crimes, Quasi Democracy and Misery Index in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 31-45, August.
    17. Emmanuel Mensah & Christopher Boachie, 2023. "Analysis of the determinants of corporate governance quality: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(4), pages 431-450, December.
    18. Darren Grant, 2009. "What Makes a Good Economy? An Analysis of Survey Data," Working Papers 0909, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    19. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2019. "Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, February.
    20. Beja, Edsel, 2014. "Measuring economic ill-being: Evidence for the ‘Philippine Misery Index’," MPRA Paper 59772, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:50:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11293-022-09744-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.