IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/atlecj/v48y2020i2d10.1007_s11293-020-09668-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spread between the Moody’s Aaa-Rated Corporate Bond Yield and the Yield on Municipals: Co-integration Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Richard J. Cebula

    (George Mason University)

  • Don Capener

    (Utah Valley University)

  • Maggie Foley

    (Jacksonville University)

  • Robert Boylan

    (Jacksonville University)

Abstract

While the research linking interest rates to government deficits is extensive, the impact of other tax-related variables is uncommon. This study seeks to add to the literature on credit markets by exploring the impact of not only the budget deficit but also average effective personal income tax rates and personal income tax evasion as explanatory variables. To the best of our knowledge this study is the first study to recognize the joint importance of all of these fiscal variables. We utilize data covering the post-Bretton Woods period from 1971 through 2016 to analyze the impact of the three variables in order to shed light on the spread between the real interest rate yields on Moody’s Aaa-rated corporate bonds and high quality municipal bonds. Estimations reveal that the higher the average effective federal personal income tax rate, the greater the differential between the yields on corporate bonds and tax-free Municipals. Furthermore, it is found that the higher the adjusted gross income gap, the greater the real yield spread between Moody’s Aaa-rated corporate bonds and high quality municipal bonds. Finally, the greater the primary budget deficit, the greater the spread as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Cebula & Don Capener & Maggie Foley & Robert Boylan, 2020. "Spread between the Moody’s Aaa-Rated Corporate Bond Yield and the Yield on Municipals: Co-integration Analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 175-184, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:48:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11293-020-09668-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-020-09668-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11293-020-09668-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11293-020-09668-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bharat R. Kolluri & Rao N. Singamesetti & P. A. V. B. Swamy, 1988. "What do regressions of interest rates on deficits imply?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Joe Peek & James A. Wilcox, 1986. "Tax rates and interest rates on tax-exempt securities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 29-41.
    3. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    4. James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, September.
    5. Richard J. Cebula & Fabrizio Rossi & Fiorentina Dajci & Maggie Foley, 2016. "Financial market determinants of the real cost of funds to public corporations in the US," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(1), pages 2-12, April.
    6. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    7. Richard J. Cebula, 2018. "Reflections on and Inquiry into Unfamiliar as well as Familiar Factors that may Influence the Market for Municipal Bonds," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 48(2), pages 145-154, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard J. Cebula, 2020. "Financial Economics Meets Tax Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 143-146, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cebula, Richard J., 2020. "The Relative Tax Gap Hypothesis: An Exploratory Analysis and Application to U.S. Financial Markets," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 23(1), pages 35-52, May.
    2. Cebula, Richard & McGrath, Richard, 2006. "Identifying Determinants of the Cost of Long Term Borrowing for U.S. Firms: Insights for Management," MPRA Paper 49647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "An exploratory analysis of the impact of budget deficits and other factors on the ex post real interest rate yield on tax-free municipal bonds in the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1297-1302, October.
    4. R.J. Cebula, 1997. "Government deficit, ex post real long-term interest rates and causality," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(202), pages 325-336.
    5. Cebula, Richard & McGrath, Richard & Toma, Michael, 2005. "Impact of the Primary Budget Deficit on the Nominal Long Term Interest Rate Yield on Tax Free Municipal Bonds," MPRA Paper 61411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Cebula, Richard J., 2014. "Preliminary Evidence on the Impact of Budget Deficits on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on Ten-Year U.S. Treasury Notes after Allowing for Adoption of Monetary Policies Involving "Quantitative E," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 67(2), pages 181-200.
    7. Cebula, Richard & Foley, Maggie, 2012. "Recent Evidence on the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Nominal Long Term Mortgage Interest Rate in the U.S," MPRA Paper 53691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Richard Cebula & Fiorentina Angjellari-Dajci & Maggie Foley, 2014. "An exploratory empirical inquiry into the impact of federal budget deficits on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year Treasury notes over the last half century," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 712-720, October.
    9. Richard J. Cebula, 2002. "A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(223), pages 417-435.
    10. Cebula, Richard J., 2018. "An Empirical Note on Income Tax Evasion Behavior and the Real Interest Rate Yield on Municipal Bonds," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 48(2), January.
    11. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Government Borrowing And The Longterm Interest Rate: Application Of An Extended Loanable Funds Model To The Slovak Republic," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 55(184), pages 58-70, January –.
    12. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Treasury Debt Issues, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 55269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer Term Real Interest Rate in the U.S.: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(1), pages 23-40.
    14. Richard J. Cebula, 2018. "Impact of U.S. federal government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year treasury notes during the post-Bretton Woods (1972–2016) era," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 828-835, October.
    15. Richard J. Cebula, 1997. "A Note on the Impact of Structural Federal Budget Deficits on Commercial Bank Interest Rates, 1963-1994," Public Finance Review, , vol. 25(4), pages 442-450, July.
    16. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
    17. Richard J Cebula, 2004. "The Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on the Nominal Interest Rate Yield on U.S. Treasury Notes, 1979-2001," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-18, March.
    18. Belton, Willie & Cebula, Richard, 1992. "Budget Deficits and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 61413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Cebula, Richard & Koch, James & Perry, William & Toma, Michael, 2003. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and the Crowding Out of Private Investment in the United states: Evidence for the 1990s," MPRA Paper 54571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Cebula, Richard J. & Foley, Maggie, 2019. "An Empirical Analysis for the U.S. of the Effects of Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yields on Thirty-Year and Twenty-Year Treasury Bonds," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(2), pages 231-252.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:48:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11293-020-09668-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.