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The Poll Results Hypothesis

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  • Richard Cebula
  • Daniel Hulse

Abstract

This empirical study seeks to broaden the interpretation of the rational voter model so as to reflect the potential impact of the results of polls of likely voters’ Presidential candidate preferences on the expected benefits of voting and hence on the voter participation rate. This study introduces the poll results hypothesis: in any given state, given the existence of the Electoral College, the greater the lead of a principal Presidential candidate over his/her closest rival as revealed in polls of likely voters, the lower, for at least some portion of prospective voters, the expected gross benefits of voting in that state and hence the lower the aggregate voter participation rate in that state. In a cross-section study of the 50 states during the 2004 general election, it is found, after allowing for a variety of other factors, that the greater the lead (as revealed in polls of likely voters) of either of the principal Presidential candidates over the other in any given state, the lower the voter turnout rate in that state. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Cebula & Daniel Hulse, 2007. "The Poll Results Hypothesis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 35(1), pages 33-41, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:35:y:2007:i:1:p:33-41
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-006-9048-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Cebula, 2004. "Expressiveness and voting: Alternative evidence," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 32(3), pages 216-221, September.
    2. Timothy J. Feddersen, 2004. "Rational Choice Theory and the Paradox of Not Voting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 99-112, Winter.
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    9. Ashenfelter, Orley C & Kelley, Stanley, Jr, 1975. "Determinants of Participation in Presidential Elections," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 695-733, December.
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    11. Riker, William H. & Ordeshook, Peter C., 1968. "A Theory of the Calculus of Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 25-42, March.
    12. Richard Cebula, 2003. "Tax evasion as ade facto vote of disapproval of PAC contributions," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(4), pages 338-347, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard J. Cebula & Christopher M. Duquette & Franklin G. Mixon, 2013. "Battleground states and voter participation in US presidential elections: an empirical test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3795-3799, September.
    2. Richard Cebula & Franklin Mixon, 2012. "Dodging the vote?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 325-343, February.
    3. Christopher Duquette & Franklin Mixon & Richard Cebula & Kamal Upadhyaya, 2014. "Prediction Markets and Election Polling: Granger Causality Tests Using InTrade and RealClearPolitics Data," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(4), pages 357-366, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rational voter model; real world framework; experimental framework; voting behavior; voting process; D72;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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