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Forecasting business failure in China using case-based reasoning with hybrid case respresentation

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  • Hui Li

    (School of Business Administration, Zhejiang Normal University, PR China)

  • Jie Sun

    (School of Business Administration, Zhejiang Normal University, PR China)

Abstract

Case-based reasoning (CBR) is a very effective and easily understandable method for solving real-world problems. Business failure prediction (BFP) is a forecasting tool that helps people make more precise decisions. CBR-based BFP is a hot topic in today's global financial crisis. Case representation is critical when forecasting business failure with CBR. This research describes a pioneer investigation on hybrid case representation by employing principal component analysis (PCA), a feature extraction method, along with stepwise multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), a feature selection approach. In this process, sample cases are represented with all available financial ratios, i.e., features. Next, the stepwise MDA is used to select optimal features to produce a reduced-case representation. Finally, PCA is employed to extract the final information representing the sample cases. All data signified by hybrid case representation are recorded in a case library, and the k -nearest-neighbor algorithm is used to make the forecasting. Thus we constructed a hybrid CBR (HCBR) by integrating hybrid case representation into the forecasting tool. We empirically tested the performance of HCBR with data collected for short-term BFP of Chinese listed companies. Empirical results indicated that HCBR can produce more promising prediction performance than MDA, logistic regression, classical CBR, and support vector machine. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Li & Jie Sun, 2010. "Forecasting business failure in China using case-based reasoning with hybrid case respresentation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 486-501.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:5:p:486-501
    DOI: 10.1002/for.1149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Hui & Hong, Lu-Yao & He, Jia-Xun & Xu, Xuan-Guo & Sun, Jie, 2013. "Small sample-oriented case-based kernel predictive modeling and its economic forecasting applications under n-splits-k-times hold-out assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 747-761.
    2. Jie Sun, 2012. "Integration Of Random Sample Selection, Support Vector Machines And Ensembles For Financial Risk Forecasting With An Empirical Analysis On The Necessity Of Feature Selection," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 229-246, October.
    3. Li, Hui & Sun, Jie, 2012. "Forecasting business failure: The use of nearest-neighbour support vectors and correcting imbalanced samples – Evidence from the Chinese hotel industry," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 622-634.
    4. Fernando Zambrano Farias & María del Carmen Valls Martínez & Pedro Antonio Martín-Cervantes, 2021. "Explanatory Factors of Business Failure: Literature Review and Global Trends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-26, September.
    5. Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph & Zhang, Hongxu, 2015. "Business failure research," MPRA Paper 67848, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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