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Long-term sales forecasting using holt-winters and neural network methods

Author

Listed:
  • Markos Papageorgiou

    (Technical University of Crete, Greece)

  • Apostolos Kotsialos

    (Technical University of Crete, Greece)

  • Antonios Poulimenos

    (Technical University of Crete, Greece)

Abstract

The problem of medium to long-term sales forecasting raises a number of requirements that must be suitably addressed in the design of the employed forecasting methods. These include long forecasting horizons (up to 52 periods ahead), a high number of quantities to be forecasted, which limits the possibility of human intervention, frequent introduction of new articles (for which no past sales are available for parameter calibration) and withdrawal of running articles. The problem has been tackled by use of a damped-trend Holt-Winters method as well as feedforward multilayer neural networks (FMNNs) applied to sales data from two German companies. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Markos Papageorgiou & Apostolos Kotsialos & Antonios Poulimenos, 2005. "Long-term sales forecasting using holt-winters and neural network methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 353-368.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:24:y:2005:i:5:p:353-368
    DOI: 10.1002/for.943
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grubb, Howard & Mason, Alexina, 2001. "Long lead-time forecasting of UK air passengers by Holt-Winters methods with damped trend," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 71-82.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Gelper & Roland Fried & Christophe Croux, 2010. "Robust forecasting with exponential and Holt-Winters smoothing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 285-300.
    2. Hong Chen, 2010. "Using Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators to Forecast Sales of Large Development and Construction Firms," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 310-331, April.

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