IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jof/jforec/v24y2005i2p105-117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting nonlinear time series with feed-forward neural networks: a case study of Canadian lynx data

Author

Listed:
  • Yoshio Kajitani

    (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Japan)

  • A. Ian Mcleod

    (University of Western Ontario, Canada)

  • Keith W. Hipel

    (University of Waterloo, Canada)

Abstract

The forecasting capabilities of feed-forward neural network (FFNN) models are compared to those of other competing time series models by carrying out forecasting experiments. As demonstrated by the detailed forecasting results for the Canadian lynx data set, FFNN models perform very well, especially when the series contains nonlinear and non-Gaussian characteristics. To compare the forecasting accuracy of a FFNN model with an alternative model, Pitman's test is employed to ascertain if one model forecasts significantly better than another when generating one-step-ahead forecasts. Moreover, the residual-fit spread plot is utilized in a novel fashion in this paper to compare visually out-of-sample forecasts of two alternative forecasting models. Finally, forecasting findings on the lynx data are used to explain under what conditions one would expect FFNN models to furnish reliable and accurate forecasts. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshio Kajitani & A. Ian Mcleod & Keith W. Hipel, 2005. "Forecasting nonlinear time series with feed-forward neural networks: a case study of Canadian lynx data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 105-117.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:24:y:2005:i:2:p:105-117
    DOI: 10.1002/for.940
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.940
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.940?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lisi, Francesco & Schiavo, Rosa A., 1999. "A comparison between neural networks and chaotic models for exchange rate prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 87-102, March.
    2. Henrik Amilon, 2003. "A neural network versus Black-Scholes: a comparison of pricing and hedging performances," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 317-335.
    3. Tim Hill & Marcus O'Connor & William Remus, 1996. "Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(7), pages 1082-1092, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Min Gan & C.L. Philip Chen & Long Chen & Chun-Yang Zhang, 2016. "Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 1868-1876, June.
    2. Huang, Lili & Wang, Jun, 2018. "Global crude oil price prediction and synchronization based accuracy evaluation using random wavelet neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 875-888.
    3. Wang, Jie & Wang, Jun, 2016. "Forecasting energy market indices with recurrent neural networks: Case study of crude oil price fluctuations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 365-374.
    4. Jying-Nan Wang & Jiangze Du & Chonghui Jiang & Kin-Keung Lai, 2019. "Chinese Currency Exchange Rates Forecasting with EMD-Based Neural Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-15, October.
    5. Cen, Zhongpei & Wang, Jun, 2019. "Crude oil price prediction model with long short term memory deep learning based on prior knowledge data transfer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 160-171.
    6. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Forecasting the US CPI: Does Nonlinearity Matter?," Working Papers 201512, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghiassi, M. & Saidane, H. & Zimbra, D.K., 2005. "A dynamic artificial neural network model for forecasting time series events," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 341-362.
    2. Rodríguez-Vargas, Adolfo, 2020. "Forecasting Costa Rican inflation with machine learning methods," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    3. Geraint Johnes, 2000. "Up Around the Bend: Linear and nonlinear models of the UK economy compared," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 485-493.
    4. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Petar Soric & Salvador Torra, 2022. ""An application of deep learning for exchange rate forecasting"," IREA Working Papers 202201, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Leigh, W. & Paz, M. & Purvis, R., 2002. "An analysis of a hybrid neural network and pattern recognition technique for predicting short-term increases in the NYSE composite index," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 69-76, April.
    6. Chen, Shiyi & Jeong, Kiho & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2008. "Recurrent support vector regression for a nonlinear ARMA model with applications to forecasting financial returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-051, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    8. Andrawis, Robert R. & Atiya, Amir F. & El-Shishiny, Hisham, 2011. "Forecast combinations of computational intelligence and linear models for the NN5 time series forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 672-688, July.
    9. Lolli, F. & Gamberini, R. & Regattieri, A. & Balugani, E. & Gatos, T. & Gucci, S., 2017. "Single-hidden layer neural networks for forecasting intermittent demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(PA), pages 116-128.
    10. Edy Fradinata & Sakesun Suthummanon & Wannarat Suntiamorntut, 2015. "Forecasting Determinant of Cement Demand in Indonesia with Artificial Neural Network," Journal of Asian Scientific Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(7), pages 373-384, July.
    11. Teresa Aparicio & Dulce Saura, 2013. "Do Exchange Rate Series Present General Dependence? Some Results using Recurrence Quantification Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(10), pages 678-686.
    12. Yi-Ting Chen & Edward W. Sun & Yi-Bing Lin, 2020. "Machine learning with parallel neural networks for analyzing and forecasting electricity demand," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 569-597, August.
    13. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher & Treichel, Alex, 2018. "Machine learning for time series forecasting - a simulation study," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    14. Tian, Chaonan & Niu, Tong & Wei, Wei, 2022. "Developing a wind power forecasting system based on deep learning with attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    15. Robert G. Biscontri, 2012. "A Radial Basis Function Approach To Earnings Forecast," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, January.
    16. Crone, Sven F. & Hibon, Michèle & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2011. "Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 635-660, July.
    17. Ana Lazcano & Miguel A. Jaramillo-Morán & Julio E. Sandubete, 2024. "Back to Basics: The Power of the Multilayer Perceptron in Financial Time Series Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
    18. Hwarng, H. Brian, 2001. "Insights into neural-network forecasting of time series corresponding to ARMA(p,q) structures," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 273-289, June.
    19. Koffi Dumor & Komlan Gbongli, 2021. "Trade impacts of the New Silk Road in Africa: Insight from Neural Networks Analysis," Theory Methodology Practice (TMP), Faculty of Economics, University of Miskolc, vol. 17(02), pages 13-26.
    20. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen Miller, 2013. "Forecasting Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using coincident and leading employment indexes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 387-417, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:24:y:2005:i:2:p:105-117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.