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Human judgments in New York state sales and use tax forecasting

Author

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  • Kuo-Yuan Liang

    (Polaris Research Institute, Taiwan)

  • Yu-Ying Kuo

    (Shih Hsin University, Taiwan)

Abstract

Human judgments have become quite important in revenue forecasting processes. This paper centres on human judgments in New York state sales and use tax by examining the actual practices of information integration. Based on the social judgment theory (i.e., the lens model), a judgment analysis exercise was designed and administered to a person from each agency (the Division of the Budget, Assembly Ways and Means Committee Majority and Minority, and the Senate Finance Committee) to understand how information integration is processed among different agencies. The results of the judgment analysis exercise indicated that revenue forecasters put different weight on cues. And, in terms of relative and subjective weights, the cues were used differently, although they were presented with the same information. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuo-Yuan Liang & Yu-Ying Kuo, 2004. "Human judgments in New York state sales and use tax forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 297-314.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:23:y:2004:i:4:p:297-314
    DOI: 10.1002/for.914
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October.
    2. Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1987. "Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 379-391.
    3. Willemain, Thomas R., 1989. "Graphical adjustment of statistical forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 179-185.
    4. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 1992. "Exploring judgemental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-26, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan & Rook, Laurens, 2019. "Coordinating judgmental forecasting: Coping with intentional biases," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-56.

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