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Forecasting Multivariate Volatility using the VARFIMA Model on Realized Covariance Cholesky Factors

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  • Halbleib Roxana

    (European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECARES), Universite´ libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Avenue F. Roosevelt, 50, CP114/04, 1050 Brussels, Belgium, and CoFE)

  • Voev Valeri

    (School of Economics and Management, Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark, and CREATES)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the forecast accuracy of the multivariate realized volatility model introduced by Chiriac and Voev (2010), subject to different degrees of model parametrization and economic evaluation criteria. Bymodelling the Cholesky factors of the covariance matrices, the model generates positive definite, but biased covariance forecasts. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence that parsimonious versions of the model generate the best covariance forecasts in the absence of bias correction. Moreover, we show by means of stochastic dominance tests that any risk averse investor, regardless of the type of utility function or return distribution, would be better-off from using this model than from using some standard approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Halbleib Roxana & Voev Valeri, 2011. "Forecasting Multivariate Volatility using the VARFIMA Model on Realized Covariance Cholesky Factors," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 134-152, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:231:y:2011:i:1:p:134-152
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2011-0109
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fengler, Matthias R. & Okhrin, Ostap, 2012. "Realized copula," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-034, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. Halbleib, Roxana & Dimitriadis, Timo, 2019. "How informative is high-frequency data for tail risk estimation and forecasting? An intrinsic time perspectice," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203669, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Fengler, Matthias R. & Okhrin, Ostap, 2016. "Managing risk with a realized copula parameter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 131-152.
    4. Fengler, Matthias R. & Okhrin, Ostap, 2012. "Realized copula," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-034, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    5. Karmous, Aida & Boubaker, Heni & Belkacem, Lotfi, 2019. "A dynamic factor model with stylized facts to forecast volatility for an optimal portfolio," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-034 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; fractional integration; stochastic dominance; portfolio optimization; realized covariance; Forecasting; fractional integration; stochastic dominance; portfolio optimization; realized covariance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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