IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jfr/ijfr11/v9y2018i4p35-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short and Long-Run Determinants of Inflation in Saudi Arabia: A Cointegration Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Saad Mohammed Alnefaee

Abstract

This paper investigates the short and long-run determinants of inflation in Saudi Arabia for the period of 1987-2017. To achieve this objective, the Johansen and Julius cointegration procedure and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were conducted to examine the existence of the short and long-run relationships between inflation, the money supply, domestic demand, the exchange rate and oil prices. The results reveal that inflation, in the long-run, is positively influenced by the money supply, domestic demand, and oil prices. It is negatively influenced by the exchange rate. Inflation is also highly influenced by domestic factors in the short-run (e.g., money supply, domestic demand). The Granger causality results indicate a bi-directional causality between the money supply and inflation. The unidirectional causality goes from the domestic demand and the oil prices to the price level. The Impulse Response Analysis illustrates that shocks associated with the money supply, domestic demand and oil prices have a positive impact on inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Saad Mohammed Alnefaee, 2018. "Short and Long-Run Determinants of Inflation in Saudi Arabia: A Cointegration Analysis," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(4), pages 35-42, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:9:y:2018:i:4:p:35-42
    DOI: 10.5430/ijfr.v9n4p35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/ijfr/article/view/13950/8716
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/ijfr/article/view/13950
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5430/ijfr.v9n4p35?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Darrat, Ali F., 1986. "Money, inflation, and causality in the North African Countries: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 87-103.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wong, Zoey Jia Rou & Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2020. "Credit Card Usage and Inflation: A Case Study of a Small Open Economy," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(1), pages 19-32.
    2. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andhyka Tyaz Nugraha & Nor Hasni Osman, 2019. "CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, and Household Expenditure for Indonesia: Evidence from Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 291-298.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Edgardo Sica, 2007. "Causality between Energy and Economic Growth: the Italian case," Quaderni DSEMS 03-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    4. Marin, Dalia, 1992. "Is the Export-Led.Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 678-688, November.
    5. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    6. Barja, Gover, 1995. "Time Series Analysis of Macroeconomic Conditions in Open Economies," MPRA Paper 62178, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Amjad Ali & Marc Audi & Chan Bibi & Yannick Roussel, 2021. "The Impact of Gender Inequality and Environmental Degradation on Human Well-being in the Case of Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 92-99.
    8. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    9. Bardsen, G. & Klovland, J.T., 1990. "Finding The Rigth Nominal Anchor: The Cointegration Of Money, Credit And Nominal Income In Norway," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 350, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. de Meulemeester, Jean-Luc & Rochat, Denis, 1995. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 351-361, December.
    11. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Cointegration in a historical perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 156-159, September.
    12. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "Is There an East-West Split in North American Natural Gas Markets?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 6, pages 59-72, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Tung Liu & Lee C. Spector, 2005. "Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 151-169, January.
    14. Jones Danquah & Daniel Sarpong & Ari Pappinen, 2013. "Causal relationships between African mahoganies exports and deforestation in Ghana: policy implications," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 51-66, February.
    15. S. Gurcan Gulen, 1996. "Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 43-57.
    16. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
    17. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2005. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24711, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Kasimati Evangelia, 2016. "Does tourism contribute significantly to the Greek economy? A multiplier analysis," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 7(1), pages 55-62, May.
    19. Chin Lee & M. Azali, 2010. "Currency Linkages Among Asean," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(03), pages 459-470.
    20. P. Srinivasan & Inder Siddanth Ravindra, 2015. "Causality among Energy Consumption, CO2 Emission, Economic Growth and Trade," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 50(3), pages 168-189, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:9:y:2018:i:4:p:35-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gina Perry (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://ijfr.sciedupress.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.