IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jes/wpaper/y2014v6i2p165-191.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Current Account Dynamics In The Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Yannick Timmer

    (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland)

Abstract

This paper investigates the current account (CA) dynamics in the Euro Area by addressing three questions. First, are the vast CA deficits of some Euro Area members still sustainable? Second, what has financed them? Third, what is the reaction of an external shock? The aim of this paper is to address these issues by applying an econometric analysis to the most recent data. The main finding is that the CA does not have to be necessarily stationary. This result does not go in line with what most papers assume and conclude. Last, applying a vector error-correction model (VECM), I conclude that the dynamics of the CA deficits in the Euro Area and bank related net inflows seem to be highly associated. It is also found that CA adjustments do not occur contemporaneously to shocks. However, the adjustment of banking capital flows occurs almost immediately.

Suggested Citation

  • Yannick Timmer, 2014. "Current Account Dynamics In The Euro Area," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6(2), pages 165-191, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:jes:wpaper:y:2014:v:6:i:2:p:165-191
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ceswp.uaic.ro/articles/CESWP2014_VI2_TIM.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the US Current Account," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 457-496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "On the Stationarity of Current Account Deficits in the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 730-740, September.
    3. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, January.
    6. Philip R. Lane & Barbara Pels, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp397, IIIS.
    7. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    8. Raphael A. Auer, 2014. "What drives TARGET2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis [What drives Target2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 139-197.
    9. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere," IMF Working Papers 2013/183, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198, January.
    11. Taylor, Alan M., 2002. "A century of current account dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 725-748, November.
    12. Muge Adalet & Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 205-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fahmida Khatun & Syed Yusuf Saadat, 2020. "Fourth Industrial Revolution, Technological Advancement and Youth Employment: A South Asian Perspective," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 21(1), pages 58-75, March.
    2. Das, Debasish Kumar, 2012. "Determinants of current account imbalances in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis," MPRA Paper 42419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Van De Vijver, Elien & Derudder, Ben & Witlox, Frank, 2014. "Exploring causality in trade and air passenger travel relationships: the case of Asia-Pacific, 1980–2010," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 142-150.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Volz, Ulrich, 2018. "Capital flows to emerging market and developing economies: global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors," IDOS Discussion Papers 23/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    5. Fahmida Khatun & Syed Yusuf Saadat, 2022. "The Optimum Level of Income Inequality in South Asia: An Econometric Analysis," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 23(1), pages 7-29, March.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2012. "A Note on the Current Account Sustainability of European Transition Economies," Working Papers 2012011, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    7. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "Does the Dispersion of Unit Labor Cost Dynamics in the EMU Imply Long-Run Divergence?: Results from a Comparison with the United States of America and Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 674, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Rezwanul Hasan Rana & Khorshed Alam & Jeff Gow, 2020. "Health expenditure and gross domestic product: causality analysis by income level," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 55-77, March.
    9. Mihail Petkovski & Kjosevski Jordan, 2014. "An Analysis Of Non-Life Insurance Determinants For Selected Countries In Central And South Eastern Europe: A Co-Integration Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 160-178, October.
    10. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2020. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 273-294, April.
    11. Holmes, Mark J, 2003. "Are the Trade Deficits of Less Developed Countries Stationary?. Evidence for African Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(3).
    12. Anton Velinov, 2014. "Assessing the Sustainability of Government Debt: On the Different States of the Debt/GDP Process," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1359, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Konopczak, Michal, 2015. "Government debt holdings of non-residents – an analysis of the impact on selected emerging economies’ sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 68597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Vasif Abioglu & Suleyman Koc & Ibrahim Bakirtas, 2021. "The sustainability of the Turkish current account: Smooth structural break and asymmetric adjustments," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3916-3929, July.
    16. Frederique Bec & Melika Ben Salem, 2020. "An asymmetrical overshooting correction model for G20 nominal effective exchange rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 1937-1947.
    17. Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "CEEC vs. PIGS: a comparative panel assessment of financial sustainability and twin deficits," Working Papers LuissLab 1088, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    18. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    19. Márquez, Miguel A. & Ramajo, Julián & Hewings, Geoffrey J. D., 2011. "Public Capital and Regional Economic Growth: a SVAR Approach for the Spanish Regions," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 21, pages 199-223.
    20. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "Growth And Adjustment Challenges For The Euro Area," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(2), pages 273-295.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current Account; Euro Area; Banking Capital Flows Romania;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jes:wpaper:y:2014:v:6:i:2:p:165-191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alupului Ciprian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csjesro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.