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Early Warning Systems For Financial Crises.A Critical Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Stanislav Percic

    (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania)

  • Constantin-Marius Apostoaie

    (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania)

  • Vasile Cocris

    (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Romania)

Abstract

This research paper aims to analyse some Early Warning Systems (EWS) for predicting financial crises. The importance of such a study is undeniable in the context of the current and future mix of policies applied by the monetary authority, in which financial stability and price stability play an important role. The EWS for crises enable the prediction of the occurrence of a crisis within a specified time period. Hence, the theoretical approach of the main early warning systems for crises, the models based on signal extraction and the logit/probit models represent an important stage in preventing and fighting financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislav Percic & Constantin-Marius Apostoaie & Vasile Cocris, 2013. "Early Warning Systems For Financial Crises.A Critical Approach," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 5(1), pages 77-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:jes:wpaper:y:2013:v:5:i:1:p:77-88
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    File URL: http://ceswp.uaic.ro/articles/CESWP2013_V1_PER.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; currency crisis; Early Warning System; signal extraction; crisis prediction Romania;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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