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Are global shocks leading indicators of currency crisis in Viet Nam?

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  • Pham, Thi Hoang Anh

Abstract

This paper aims to identify leading indicators of a currency crisis in Viet Nam based on an early warning system for the period 1996–February 2016. This paper found that global financial shocks (e.g., regional and global financial crisis, unexpected changes in monetary policy of largest economies such as the United States and the People’s Republic of China), and domestic credit growth rate are leading indicators of a currency crisis in Viet Nam in all three models. Deficits in trade balance, international reserves, and overvaluation of the dong are also good indicators. In addition, a model in which a currency crisis or turbulence in the foreign exchange market is defined based on the exchange market pressure and parallel market premium, with window length of 2 months, outperformed for predicting a currency crisis in Viet Nam. Empirical results suggested that probability of predicting a true currency crisis was 77.5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Pham, Thi Hoang Anh, 2017. "Are global shocks leading indicators of currency crisis in Viet Nam?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 605-615.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:605-615
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Manh-Tung Ho & Ngoc-Thang B. Le & Hung-Long D. Tran & Quoc-Hung Nguyen & Manh-Ha Pham & Minh-Hoang Ly & Manh-Toan Ho & Minh-Hoang Nguyen & Quan-Hoang Vuong, 2021. "A Systematic and Critical Review on the Research Landscape of Finance in Vietnam from 2008 to 2020," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early warning system (EWS); Currency crisis; Global shock; Exchange market pressure (EMP); Viet Nam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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