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Contra Epstein, Good Explanations Predict

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Abstract

Epstein has argued that an explanation's capacity to make predictions should play a minor role in its evaluation . This view contradicts centuries of scientific practice and, at least, decades of philosophy of science. We argue that the view is not only unfounded but seems to arise from a mistaken fear that ABM models are in need of defense against the criticism that they don't necessarily forecast events in the natural or social world.

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  • Nicholas S. Thompson & Patrick Derr, 2009. "Contra Epstein, Good Explanations Predict," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2008-75-2
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    1. Joshua M. Epstein, 2008. "Why Model?," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(4), pages 1-12.
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    1. Carlos Andres Devia & Giulia Giordano, 2023. "Classification-Based Opinion Formation Model Embedding Agents’ Psychological Traits," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 26(3), pages 1-1.
    2. Klaus G. Troitzsch, 2009. "Not All Explanations Predict Satisfactorily, and Not All Good Predictions Explain," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10.

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