IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jas/jasssj/2008-57-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why Model?

Author

Abstract

This address treats some enduring misconceptions about modeling. One of these is that the goal is always prediction. The lecture distinguishes between explanation and prediction as modeling goals, and offers sixteen reasons other than prediction to build a model. It also challenges the common assumption that scientific theories arise from and 'summarize' data, when often, theories precede and guide data collection; without theory, in other words, it is not clear what data to collect. Among other things, it also argues that the modeling enterprise enforces habits of mind essential to freedom. It is based on the author's 2008 Bastille Day keynote address to the Second World Congress on Social Simulation, George Mason University, and earlier addresses at the Institute of Medicine, the University of Michigan, and the Santa Fe Institute.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua M. Epstein, 2008. "Why Model?," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(4), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2008-57-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.jasss.org/11/4/12/12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip Ball, 2007. "Social science goes virtual," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7154), pages 647-648, August.
    2. Samuelson, Paul A, 1972. "Maximum Principles in Analytical Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 249-262, June.
    3. Joshua M. Epstein & Robert L. Axtell, 1996. "Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550253, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fitch, Dale & Grogan-Kaylor, Andrew, 2012. "Using agency data for evidence-based programming: A university–agency collaboration," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 105-112.
    2. Rolf Barth & Matthias Meyer & Jan Spitzner, 2012. "Typical Pitfalls of Simulation Modeling - Lessons Learned from Armed Forces and Business," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 15(2), pages 1-5.
    3. Jakub Bijak & Jason D. Hilton & Eric Silverman & Viet Dung Cao, 2013. "Reforging the Wedding Ring," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(27), pages 729-766.
    4. Rixen, Martin & Weigand, Jürgen, 2014. "Agent-based simulation of policy induced diffusion of smart meters," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 153-167.
    5. Ozge Dilaver, 2015. "From Participants to Agents: Grounded Simulation as a Mixed-Method Research Design," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15.
    6. Ammar Malik & Andrew Crooks & Hilton Root & Melanie Swartz, 2015. "Exploring Creativity and Urban Development with Agent-Based Modeling," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(2), pages 1-12.
    7. Wells, Victoria K. & Gregory Smith, Diana & Taheri, Babak & Manika, Danae & McCowlen, Clair, 2016. "An exploration of CSR development in heritage tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-17.
    8. Sara McPhee-Knowles, 2015. "Growing Food Safety from the Bottom Up: An Agent-Based Model of Food Safety Inspections," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(2), pages 1-9.
    9. Felipe Hernández Crespo, 2014. "Modelos mentales y sistemas multiagentes: Gobernanza de la pesca en el corregimiento de Barú," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 8(2), pages 139-156, December.
    10. Sobkowicz, Pawel, 2016. "Agent based model of effects of task allocation strategies in flat organizations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 17-30.
    11. Alexandre Flávio Silva Andrada, 2014. "Um Estudo Do Discurso Doutrinário De Robert E. Lucas Jr. Método E História Das Ideias Acerca Das Análises De Ciclos Econômicos," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 005, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Borg, Audun & Paulsen Husted, Bjarne & Njå, Ove, 2014. "The concept of validation of numerical models for consequence analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 36-45.
    13. Nicholas S. Thompson & Patrick Derr, 2009. "Contra Epstein, Good Explanations Predict," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9.
    14. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Aleklett, Kjell, 2014. "Bottom-up modeling of oil production: A review of approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 113-123.
    15. Bruce Edmonds, 2010. "Bootstrapping Knowledge About Social Phenomena Using Simulation Models," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8.
    16. Lawlor, Jennifer A. & McGirr, Sara, 2017. "Agent-based modeling as a tool for program design and evaluation," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 131-138.
    17. Pawel Sobkowicz, 2009. "Modelling Opinion Formation with Physics Tools: Call for Closer Link with Reality," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11.
    18. Siegmeier, Torsten & Blumenstein, Benjamin & Möller, Detlev, 2015. "Farm biogas production in organic agriculture: System implications," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 196-209.
    19. Lang, J.C. & De Sterck, H., 2014. "The Arab Spring: A simple compartmental model for the dynamics of a revolution," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 12-21.
    20. Hardt, Lukas & O'Neill, Daniel W., 2017. "Ecological Macroeconomic Models: Assessing Current Developments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 198-211.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nocetti, Diego C., 2013. "The LeChatelier principle for changes in risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 460-466.
    2. Luís de Sousa & Alberto Rodrigues da Silva, 2015. "Showcasing a Domain Specific Language for Spatial Simulation Scenarios with case studies," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1044, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Eugenio Caverzasi & Antoine Godin, 2013. "Stock-flow Consistent Modeling through the Ages," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_745, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Luca Riccetti & Alberto Russo & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "An agent based decentralized matching macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 305-332, October.
    5. Michael J. Radzicki, 2003. "Mr. Hamilton, Mr. Forrester, and a Foundation for Evolutionary Economics," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 133-173, March.
    6. Kazuya Yamamoto, 2015. "Mobilization, Flexibility of Identity, and Ethnic Cleavage," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(2), pages 1-8.
    7. Vincent Carret, 2021. "Rupture and continuity in the original divide between micro-dynamics and macro-dynamics," Working Papers halshs-03242180, HAL.
    8. repec:voc:wpaper:tech82012 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Dirk Helbing & Thomas U. Grund, 2013. "Editorial: Agent-Based Modeling And Techno-Social Systems," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(04n05), pages 1-3.
    10. Ross Richardson & Matteo G. Richiardi & Michael Wolfson, 2015. "We ran one billion agents. Scaling in simulation models," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 142, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    11. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.
    12. Cincotti, Silvano & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea, 2010. "Credit money and macroeconomic instability in the agent-based model and simulator Eurace," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-32.
    13. Martin Flodén, 2006. "Labour Supply and Saving Under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 721-737, July.
    14. Khalil, Elias L., 2010. "The Bayesian fallacy: Distinguishing internal motivations and religious beliefs from other beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 268-280, August.
    15. Jakub Bijak & Jason D. Hilton & Eric Silverman & Viet Dung Cao, 2013. "Reforging the Wedding Ring," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(27), pages 729-766.
    16. Juan Manuel Larrosa, 2016. "Agentes computacionales y análisis económico," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(34), pages 87-113, January-J.
    17. Joshua M. Epstein, 2007. "Agent-Based Computational Models and Generative Social Science," Introductory Chapters, in: Generative Social Science Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling, Princeton University Press.
    18. Rich, Karl M. & Ross, R. Brent & Baker, A. Derek & Negassa, Asfaw, 2011. "Quantifying value chain analysis in the context of livestock systems in developing countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 214-222, April.
    19. Ugo Merlone & Daren Sandbank & Ferenc Szidarovszky, 2013. "Equilibria analysis in social dilemma games with Skinnerian agents," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 12(2), pages 219-233, November.
    20. Venkatasubramanian, Venkat & Luo, Yu & Sethuraman, Jay, 2015. "How much inequality in income is fair? A microeconomic game theoretic perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 435(C), pages 120-138.
    21. Laobing Zhang & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers & Nima Khakzad & Jianfeng Zhou, 2018. "DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent‐Based Modeling and Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1585-1600, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    [No keywords];

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2008-57-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Francesco Renzini (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.