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Governments, Civilians, and the Evolution of Insurgency: Modeling the Early Dynamics of Insurgencies

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Abstract

This paper models the early dynamics of insurgency using an agent-based computer simulation of civilians, insurgents, and soldiers. In the simulation, insurgents choose to attack government forces, which then strike back. Such government counterattacks may result in the capture or killing of insurgents, may make nearby civilians afraid to become insurgents, but may also increase the anger of surrounding civilians if there is significant collateral damage. If civilians become angry enough, they become new insurgents. I simulate the dynamics of these interactions, focusing on the effectiveness of government forces at capturing insurgents vs. their accuracy in avoiding collateral damage. The simulations suggest that accuracy (avoidance of collateral damage) is more important for the long-term defeat of insurgency than is effectiveness at capturing insurgents in any given counterattack. There also may be a critical 'tipping point' for accuracy below which the length of insurgencies increases dramatically. The dynamics of how insurgencies grow or decline in response to various combinations of government accuracy and effectiveness illustrate the tradeoffs faced by governments in dealing with the early stages of an insurgency.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Scott Bennett, 2008. "Governments, Civilians, and the Evolution of Insurgency: Modeling the Early Dynamics of Insurgencies," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(4), pages 1-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2008-4-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Navin A. Bapat, 2005. "Insurgency and the Opening of Peace Processes," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 42(6), pages 699-717, November.
    2. Ravi Bhavnani & Dan Miodownik & Jonas Nart, 2008. "REsCape: an Agent-Based Framework for Modeling Resources, Ethnicity, and Conflict," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(2), pages 1-7.
    3. Scott Wheeler, 2005. "It Pays to Be Popular: a Study of Civilian Assistance and Guerilla Warfare," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 8(4), pages 1-9.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dan Miodownik & Ravi Bhavnani, 2011. "Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset How Identity Salience, Fiscal Policy, and Natural Resource Profiles Moderate Outcomes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(5), pages 438-458, November.
    2. Burton Lucy & Johnson Shane D. & Braithwaite Alex, 2017. "Potential uses of Numerical Simulation for the Modelling of Civil Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-39, January.
    3. David A Siegel, 2011. "Non-Disruptive Tactics of Suppression Are Superior in Countering Terrorism, Insurgency, and Financial Panics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(4), pages 1-6, April.

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