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Ethnic Polarization, Ethnic Salience, and Civil War

Author

Listed:
  • Ravi Bhavnani

    (Department of Political Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing)

  • Dan Miodownik

    (Departments of Political Science and International Relations, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus)

Abstract

This article examines how the relationship between ethnic polarization and civil war could be moderated by different degrees of ethnic salience. Using an agent-based computational model, we analyze the polarization—conflict relationship when ethnic salience is ``fixed''—high for every member of two nominally rival ethnic groups— and ``variable''—permitted to vary across individuals as a function of relative income. We find that (1) when salience is fixed, conflict onset is twice as high at low levels of polarization compared to when salience is permitted to vary, with the difference decreasing at high levels of polarization; (2) the relationship between conflict onset and the range over which we calculate variable salience is positive and robust for low and moderate levels of polarization; (3) the relationship between polarization and conflict onset is robust even under minority domination, if one holds salience fixed; and (4) holding ethnic salience fixed effectively amplifies the negative effect of polarization on economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravi Bhavnani & Dan Miodownik, 2009. "Ethnic Polarization, Ethnic Salience, and Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(1), pages 30-49, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:53:y:2009:i:1:p:30-49
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002708325945
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:gig:joupla:v:4:y:2012:i:3:p:3-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Janus, Thorsten & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2015. "Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 32-44.
    3. Giménez-Gómez, José-Manuel & Zergawu, Yitagesu-Zewdu, 2018. "The impact of social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks on civil conflicts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 959-997.
    4. Gustavo Javier Canavire-Bacarreza & Christopher Cotton & Michael Jetter & Alejandra Montoya-Agudelo, 2019. "Polarized education levels and civil unrest," Working Paper 1417, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    5. repec:bpj:pepspp:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:10:n:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Giménez Gómez, José M. (José Manuel), 2016. "Linking social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks to civil conflicts," Working Papers 2072/290744, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    7. Gustavo Javier Canavire-Bacarreza & Michael Jetter & Alejandra Montoya-Agudelo, 2016. "Polarized Education Levels and Civil War," CESifo Working Paper Series 6267, CESifo.

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