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Carrots, sticks and fog during insurgencies

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  • Atkinson, Michael P.
  • Kress, Moshe
  • Szechtman, Roberto

Abstract

We formulate a rational choice model of popular behavior during an insurgency. An individual in the population either supports the insurgents or the government depending upon his attitude and the actions taken by each side. We focus on the effect of insurgency actions: benefits, impositions, and coercion. While benefits and impositions are applied uniformly throughout, the insurgents intend to only coerce those actively providing information to the government. However, due to the “fog of war”, which may lead to limited situational awareness, the insurgents may mistakenly coerce their own supporters and potentially drive them to aid the government. We examine how popular behavior varies under different situational awareness scenarios. When the insurgents have little situational awareness, they should take few coercive actions. This implies that the government will be able to foster intelligence sources within the population. If the insurgents have perfect situational awareness, tipping points may occur that result in a significant reduction in active support for the government. In this case the government should take actions to decrease the coercing effectiveness of the insurgents and increase incentives to the population so they continue to provide information.

Suggested Citation

  • Atkinson, Michael P. & Kress, Moshe & Szechtman, Roberto, 2012. "Carrots, sticks and fog during insurgencies," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 203-213.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:64:y:2012:i:3:p:203-213
    DOI: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2012.03.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ravi Bhavnani & Dan Miodownik & Jonas Nart, 2008. "REsCape: an Agent-Based Framework for Modeling Resources, Ethnicity, and Conflict," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(2), pages 1-7.
    2. David Card & Alexandre Mas & Jesse Rothstein, 2008. "Tipping and the Dynamics of Segregation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 177-218.
    3. Luke N. Condra & Joseph H. Felter & Radha K. Iyengar & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2010. "The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq," NBER Working Papers 16152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Timur Kuran, 1989. "Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 41-74, April.
    5. Moshe Kress & Roberto Szechtman, 2009. "Why Defeating Insurgencies Is Hard: The Effect of Intelligence in Counterinsurgency Operations---A Best-Case Scenario," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 578-585, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerçek Budak & İmdat Kara & Yusuf Tansel İç & Refail Kasımbeyli, 2019. "New mathematical models for team formation of sports clubs before the match," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(1), pages 93-109, March.

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