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Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection under Asymmetric Loss

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  • Christoffersen, Peter F
  • Diebold, Francis X

Abstract

We make three related contributions. First, we propose a new technique for solving prediction problems under asymmetric loss using piecewise-linear approximations to the loss function, and we establish existence and uniqueness of the optimal predictor. Second, we provide a detailed application to optimal prediction of a conditionally heteroscedastic process under asymmetric loss, the insights gained from which are broadly applicable. Finally, we incorporate our results into a general framework for recursive prediction-based model selection under the relevant loss function. Copyright 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1996. "Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection under Asymmetric Loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 561-571, Sept.-Oct.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:11:y:1996:i:5:p:561-71
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    1. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    3. Zellner, A., 1992. "Statistics, Science and Public Policy," Papers 92-21, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    5. McCloskey, Donald N, 1985. "The Loss Function Has Been Mislaid: The Rhetoric of Significance Tests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 201-205, May.
    6. Newey, Whitney K & Powell, James L, 1987. "Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 819-847, July.
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