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Coupling remote sensing and hydrological model for evaluating the impacts of climate change on streamflow in data-scarce environment

Author

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  • Akhtar, F.
  • Awan, Usman Khalid
  • Borgemeister, C.
  • Tischbein, B.

Abstract

The Kabul River Basin (KRB) in Afghanistan is densely inhabited and heterogenic. The basin’s water resources are limited, and climate change is anticipated to worsen this problem. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of data to measure the impacts of climate change on the KRB’s current water resources. The objective of the current study is to introduce a methodology that couples remote sensing and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating the impact of climate change on the existing water resources of the KRB. Most of the biophysical parameters required for the SWAT model were derived from remote sensing-based algorithms. The SUFI-2 technique was used for calibrating and validating the SWAT model with streamflow data. The stream-gauge stations for monitoring the streamflow are not only sparse, but the streamflow data are also scarce and limited. Therefore, we selected only the stations that are properly being monitored. During the calibration period, the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were 0.75–0.86 and 0.62–0.81, respectively. During the validation period (2011–2013), the NSE and R2 values were 0.52–0.73 and 0.65–0.86, respectively. The validated SWAT model was then used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4-4) was used to extract the data for the climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) from the CORDEX domain. The results show that streamflow in most tributaries of the KRB would decrease by a maximum of 5% and 8.5% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, streamflow for the Nawabad tributary would increase by 2.4% and 3.3% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. To mitigate the impact of climate change on reduced/increased surface water availability, the SWAT model, when combined with remote sensing data, can be an effective tool to support the sustainable management and strategic planning of water resources. Furthermore, the methodological approach used in this study can be applied in any of the data-scarce regions around the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Akhtar, F. & Awan, Usman Khalid & Borgemeister, C. & Tischbein, B., 2021. "Coupling remote sensing and hydrological model for evaluating the impacts of climate change on streamflow in data-scarce environment," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-13(24):14.
    • Handle: RePEc:iwt:jounls:h050783
    DOI: 10.3390/su132414025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas J. Mack & Michael P. Chornack & Mohammad R. Taher, 2013. "Groundwater-level trends and implications for sustainable water use in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 457-467, September.
    2. World Bank, 2010. "Afghanistan - Scoping Strategic Options for Development of the Kabul River Basin : A Multisectoral Decision Support System Approach," World Bank Publications - Reports 18422, The World Bank Group.
    3. Yadu Pokhrel & Farshid Felfelani & Yusuke Satoh & Julien Boulange & Peter Burek & Anne Gädeke & Dieter Gerten & Simon N. Gosling & Manolis Grillakis & Lukas Gudmundsson & Naota Hanasaki & Hyungjun Kim, 2021. "Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 226-233, March.
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