IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ist/journl/v69y2019i2p247-283.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Beşinci ve Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgalarının Teknolojik ve Sosyoekonomik Etkileri

Author

Listed:
  • Furkan BÖRÜ

    (Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası T.A.O., Saray Mahallesi Dr. Adnan Büyükdeniz Caddesi No: 7/A-B, Umraniye, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Dündar Murat DEMİRÖZ

    (Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, Department of Economic Development and International Economics, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

Sanayi Devrimi’nden sonra, kapitalist ekonomiler hızlı büyümeye sürecine girmişlerdir. Fakat bu büyüme süreci dengeli değildir. Hızlı genişleme dönemlerini genellikle, sosyal refahın düşmesine ve yoksulluğa neden olan kriz dönemleri takip etmektedir. Takriben elli yıl süren Kondratieff Dalgaları, bu dalgalı gelişim sürecini teknolojik gelişmeler ve yenilikler ile ilişkili olarak açıklamaktadırlar. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Kondratieff Dalgalarının yarattığı yapısal ve kurumsal dönüşümleri açıklamak; bu çerçevede beklenen Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgası’nın yaratacağı etkileri incelemektir. Bu amaçla Carlota Perez tarafından ortaya konulan büyük gelişme dalgası yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlamasının, işsizlik, gelir dağılımı bozukluğu ve finans sektörü ile sanayi sektörü arasında bulunan bağların kopması sorunlarını derinleştireceği öngörüsü, çalışmanın ulaştığı en önemli sonuçtur. İçinde bulunduğumuz süreçte ve gelecek dönemde, bilgi teknolojilerinin etkilerinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha çok hissedilmesi beklenmektedir. Bu durumun gelişmekte olan ülkelerde Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nı başlatması olasıdır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlaması; işsizlik, gelir dağılımı bozukluğu ve finans sektörü ile sanayi sektörü arasında bulunan bağların kopması gibi sorunları gündeme getirebilir. Mevcut durumda birçok gelişmekte olan ülkede bu sorunlar mevcuttur. Bu nedenle Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlaması, mevcut olan sorunları daha da ağırlaştıracaktır. Bu öngörü, çalışmanın ulaştığı diğer bir önemli sonuçtur.

Suggested Citation

  • Furkan BÖRÜ & Dündar Murat DEMİRÖZ, 2019. "Beşinci ve Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgalarının Teknolojik ve Sosyoekonomik Etkileri," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(2), pages 247-283, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:journl:v:69:y:2019:i:2:p:247-283
    DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/911752
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/istjecon/issue/51430/668175
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2003. "Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 27(5), pages 671-693, September.
    2. G. Dosi & M. Sylos Labini, 2007. "Technological Paradigms and Trajectories," Chapters, in: Horst Hanusch & Andreas Pyka (ed.), Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, chapter 21, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Dosi, Giovanni & Nelson, Richard R., 2010. "Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 51-127, Elsevier.
    4. William R. Thompson & Leila Zakhirova, 2017. "Racing to a Renewable Transition?," Studies on Entrepreneurship, Structural Change and Industrial Dynamics, in: Tessaleno Devezas & João Leitão & Askar Sarygulov (ed.), Industry 4.0, pages 183-203, Springer.
    5. C. Perez, 2007. "Finance and Technical Change: A Long-term View," Chapters, in: Horst Hanusch & Andreas Pyka (ed.), Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, chapter 49, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Robert E. Lucas, 2004. "The Industrial Revolution: past and future," Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 18(May), pages 5-20.
    7. Nelson, Richard R., 2008. "What enables rapid economic progress: What are the needed institutions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-11, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dosi, Giovanni & Nelson, Richard R., 2010. "Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 51-127, Elsevier.
    2. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    3. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2002. "A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology," Research Memorandum 032, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. John M. de Figueiredo & Brian S. Silverman, 2017. "On the Genesis of Interfirm Relational Contracts," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(4), pages 234-245, December.
    5. Maciejczak, Mariusz, 2015. "Will the institution of coexistence be re-defined by TTIP?," GMCC-15: Seventh GMCC, November 17-20, 2015, Amsterdam, the Netherlands 211478, International Conference on Coexistence between Genetically Modified (GM) and non-GM based Agricultural Supply Chains (GMCC).
    6. Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Chen, Yu-Long & Kumar, Vimal & Daim, Tugrul & Verma, Pratima & Kao, Fang-Chen & Liu, Ruirong, 2023. "Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of E-payment technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    7. Mark Knell & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "Tools and concepts for understanding disruptive technological change after Schumpeter," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    8. Chari, Murali D.R. & Banalieva, Elitsa R., 2015. "How do pro-market reforms impact firm profitability? The case of India under reform," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 357-367.
    9. Rajah Rasiah & Yap Xiao Shan, 2016. "Institutional support, technological capabilities and domestic linkages in the semiconductor industry in Singapore," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 180-192, January.
    10. Bianchini, Stefano & Pellegrino, Gabriele, 2019. "Innovation persistence and employment dynamics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1171-1186.
    11. Nanditha Mathew & George Paily, 2022. "STI-DUI innovation modes and firm performance in the Indian capital goods industry: Do small firms differ from large ones?," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 435-458, April.
    12. Cantner Uwe & Dosi Giovanni, 2014. "Guest Editorial," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(2-3), pages 116-119, April.
    13. Alessandri, Enrico, 2023. "Identifying technological trajectories in the mining sector using patent citation networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Marletto, Gerardo, 2011. "Structure, agency and change in the car regime. A review of the literature," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 47, pages 71-88.
    15. Letty, Brigid & Shezi, Zanele & Mudhara, Maxwell, 2012. "An exploration of agricultural grassroots innovation in South Africa and implications for innovation indicator development," MERIT Working Papers 2012-023, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    16. Hötte, Kerstin, 2023. "Demand-pull, technology-push, and the direction of technological change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(5).
    17. Renato Garcia & Ulisses Pereira dos Santos & Wilson Suzigan, 2020. "Industrial upgrade, economic catch-up and industrial policy in Brazil: general trends and the specific case of the mining industry [Upgrade industrial, catch-up econômico e política industrial no Bras," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 30(spe), pages 1089-1114, December.
    18. Jacob Holm, 2014. "The significance of structural transformation to productivity growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 1009-1036, November.
    19. Christopher F. Baum & Hans Lööf & Pardis Nabavi & Andreas Stephan, 2017. "A new approach to estimation of the R&D–innovation–productivity relationship," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1-2), pages 121-133, February.
    20. Martinelli, Arianna, 2012. "An emerging paradigm or just another trajectory? Understanding the nature of technological changes using engineering heuristics in the telecommunications switching industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 414-429.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uzun Dalgalar; Yapısal Dönüşüm; Yenilik;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ist:journl:v:69:y:2019:i:2:p:247-283. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ertugrul YASAR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifisttr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.