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Is Shenzhen Housing Price Bubble that High? A Perspective of Shenzhen Hong Kong Cross-Border Integration

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Zhou

    (Peking University HSBC Business School)

  • Hongru Guo

    (Bank of Communication)

Abstract

In this paper, monthly data from May 2004 to December 2011 are used to calculate the equilibrium housing price predicted by the economic fundamentals of Shenzhen and additional economic fundamentals of Hong Kong under the background of the Shenzhen Hong Kong cross-border integration. Equilibrium housing price is then compared against the actual housing price to test the degree of the Shenzhen housing price bubble during the studied period. We find that aided by the economic fundamentals of Hong Kong, the Shenzhen housing price can be better explained and the gap between the actual and equilibrium housing prices can be largely reduced, thus implying a much smaller Shenzhen housing price bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Zhou & Hongru Guo, 2015. "Is Shenzhen Housing Price Bubble that High? A Perspective of Shenzhen Hong Kong Cross-Border Integration," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 365-382.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:18:n:03:2015:p:365-382
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    2. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next \\"bubble\\"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    3. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemčík, 2009. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 366-386, May.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House Prices and Business Cycles in Europe: a VAR Analysis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 540, Boston College Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dongsheng He & Guibo Sun & Ling Li & Chris Webster, 2024. "New metro and housing price and rent premiums: A natural experiment in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 61(7), pages 1371-1392, May.
    2. Wen-Chi LIU, 2016. "Do Multiple Housing Bubbles Exist in China? Further Evidence from Generalized Sup ADF Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 135-145, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing Price Bubble; Shenzhen; Cross-Border; Hong Kong;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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