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The Impact of Kuna Exchange Rate Volatility on Croatian Exports

Author

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  • Petar Soric

    (Faculty of Busines and Economics, Zagreb)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the monetary transmission mechanism through the influence of exchange rate variability on export volume. To date it has been very common to use “historical volatility” as an approximation for exchange rate variability in empirical studies. However, many macroeconomic time series are characterized by heteroskedasticity, i.e. their variance is not constant over time. Thus in this paper the ARCH model is proposed as a model of conditional heteroskedasticity. Also, as an alternative to ARCH we will introduce historical volatility based not only on future but also on past exchange rate values. In exploring the influence of exchange rate volatility and domestic income on export volume, Johansen’s multivariate cointegration approach and error-correction model (ECM) are used. The short run and long run relationships are analyzed separately. The results of econometric analysis draw attention to the different strengths of the relationship between kuna volatility and exports for the two proposed models. The first model shows a mild negative long-run relationship, while the second shows the much stronger aversion of Croatian exporters to volatility as a measure of exchange rate uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Petar Soric, 2007. "The Impact of Kuna Exchange Rate Volatility on Croatian Exports," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 353-369.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipf:finteo:v:31:y:2007:i:4:p:353-369
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    File URL: http://www.ijf.hr/eng/FTP/2007/4/soric.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    2. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    3. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    4. Brodsky, David A., 1984. "Fixed versus flexible exchange rates and the measurement of exchange rate instability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 295-306, May.
    5. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel BENAZIC & Ines KERSAN-SKABIC, 2016. "The determinants of exchange rate in Croatia," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7, pages 125-150, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARCH model; Johansen’s approach; ECM model; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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