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Application of Prediction-Error Minimization and Maximum Likelihood to Estimate Intersection O-D Matrices from Traffic Counts

Author

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  • Nancy L. Nihan

    (University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98185)

  • Gary A. Davis

    (University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98185)

Abstract

The use of prediction error and maximum likelihood techniques to estimate intersection turning and through movement probabilities from entering and exiting counts is considered here. A maximum likelihood estimator for situations when full information on turning movement counts is available is derived and used as a component for a maximum likelihood algorithm which only requires entering and exiting counts. Several algorithms based on minimizing the error between observed and predicted exiting counts are also developed. Some actual traffic data are collected and used to develop realistic simulations for evaluating the various estimators. Generally, the maximum likelihood algorithm produced biased but more efficient estimates, while prediction error minimization approaches produced unbiased but less efficient estimates. Constraining the recursive version of the ordinary least-squares estimator to satisfy natural constraints did not affect its long run convergence properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Nancy L. Nihan & Gary A. Davis, 1989. "Application of Prediction-Error Minimization and Maximum Likelihood to Estimate Intersection O-D Matrices from Traffic Counts," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 77-90, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:23:y:1989:i:2:p:77-90
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.23.2.77
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Pei-Wei & Chang, Gang-Len, 2007. "A generalized model and solution algorithm for estimation of the dynamic freeway origin-destination matrix," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 554-572, June.
    2. Guo, Jianhua & Liu, Yu & Li, Xiugang & Huang, Wei & Cao, Jinde & Wei, Yun, 2019. "Enhanced least square based dynamic OD matrix estimation using Radio Frequency Identification data," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 27-40.
    3. Ritchie, Stephen & Sun, Carlos, 1998. "Section Related Measures of Traffic System Performance: Final Report," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt4sc0t3bv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    4. Li, Baibing & De Moor, Bart, 1999. "Recursive estimation based on the equality-constrained optimization for intersection origin-destination matrices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 203-214, April.
    5. Li, Baibing, 2013. "A model of pedestrians’ intended waiting times for street crossings at signalized intersections," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 17-28.
    6. Zhang, Michael & Nie, Yu & Shen, Wei & Lee, Ming S. & Jansuwan, Sarawut & Chootinan, Piya & Pravinvongvuth, Surachet & Chen, Anthony & Recker, Will W., 2008. "Development of A Path Flow Estimator for Inferring Steady-State and Time-Dependent Origin-Destination Trip Matrices," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt3nr033sc, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    7. Garcia, Reinaldo C., 2003. "Implementing a Kalman Filtering Dynamic O-D Algorithm within Paramics- Analysing Quadstone Won Efforts for the Dynamic O-D Estimation Problem," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt6vf61301, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    8. Garcia, Reinaldo C., 2002. "Implementing A Dynamic O-D Estimation Algorithm within the Microscopic Traffic Simulator Paramics," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt0n62j6nq, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    9. Sherali, Hanif D. & Arora, Namita & Hobeika, Antoine G., 1997. "Parameter optimization methods for estimating dynamic origin-destination trip-tables," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 141-157, April.
    10. Wu, Jifeng & Chang, Gang-Len, 1996. "Estimation of time-varying origin-destination distributions with dynamic screenline flows," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 277-290, August.
    11. Sherali, Hanif D. & Park, Taehyung, 2001. "Estimation of dynamic origin-destination trip tables for a general network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 217-235, March.
    12. Li, Baibing & Moor, Bart De, 2002. "Dynamic identification of origin-destination matrices in the presence of incomplete observations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 37-57, January.

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