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Hidden Illiquidity with Multiple Central Counterparties

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Glasserman

    (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Ciamac C. Moallemi

    (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Kai Yuan

    (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

Abstract

Regulatory changes are transforming the multitrillion dollar swaps market from a network of bilateral contracts to one in which swaps are cleared through central counterparties (CCPs). The stability of the new framework depends on the CCPs’ resilience. Margin requirements are a CCP’s first line of defense against the default of a counterparty. To capture liquidity costs at default, margin requirements need to increase superlinearly in position size. However, convex margin requirements create an incentive for a swaps dealer to split its positions across multiple CCPs, effectively “hiding” potential liquidation costs from each CCP. To compensate, each CCP needs to set higher margin requirements than it would in isolation. In a model with two CCPs, we define an equilibrium as a pair of margin schedules through which both CCPs collect sufficient margin under a dealer’s optimal allocation of trades. In the case of linear price impact, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an equilibrium is that the two CCPs agree on liquidity costs, and we characterize all equilibria when this holds. A difference in views can lead to a race to the bottom. We provide extensions of this result and discuss its implications for CCP oversight and risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Glasserman & Ciamac C. Moallemi & Kai Yuan, 2016. "Hidden Illiquidity with Multiple Central Counterparties," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1143-1158, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:64:y:2016:i:5:p:1143-1158
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2015.1420
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    2. Albert J. Menkveld, 2014. "Crowded Trades: An Overlooked Systemic Risk for Central Clearing Counterparties," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-065/IV/DSF75, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Bruno Biais & Florian Heider & Marie Hoerova, 2012. "Clearing, Counterparty Risk, and Aggregate Risk," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(2), pages 193-222, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Albert J Menkveld, 2017. "Crowded Positions: An Overlooked Systemic Risk for Central Clearing Parties," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(2), pages 209-242.
    2. Yannick Armenti & Stéphane Crépey & Samuel Drapeau & Antonis Papapantoleon, 2018. "Multivariate Shortfall Risk Allocation and Systemic Risk," Working Papers hal-01764398, HAL.
    3. Berndsen, Ron, 2020. "Five Fundamental Questions on Central Counterparties," Other publications TiSEM 1f3bd844-92ab-4104-8f57-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Injun Hwang & Baeho Kim, 2022. "A systemic change of measure from central clearing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1738-1754, September.
    5. Hamed Amini & Zachary Feinstein, 2020. "Optimal Network Compression," Papers 2008.08733, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    6. Rama Cont & Darrell Duffie & Paul Glasserman & Chris Rogers & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2016. "Preface to the Special Issue on Systemic Risk: Models and Mechanisms," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1053-1055, October.
    7. Erio Castagnoli & Giacomo Cattelan & Fabio Maccheroni & Claudio Tebaldi & Ruodu Wang, 2021. "Star-shaped Risk Measures," Papers 2103.15790, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    8. Mark Paddrik & Simpson Zhang, 2019. "Central Counterparty Default Waterfalls and Systemic Loss," 2019 Meeting Papers 213, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Amini, Hamed & Feinstein, Zachary, 2023. "Optimal network compression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(3), pages 1439-1455.
    10. Capponi, Agostino & Cheng, Wan-Schwin Allen & Giglio, Stefano & Haynes, Richard, 2022. "The collateral rule: Evidence from the credit default swap market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 58-86.
    11. Wenqian Huang & Albert J. Menkveld & Shihao Yu, 2021. "Central Counterparty Exposure in Stressed Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3596-3617, June.

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