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Evaluating Decision Strategies for Equity of Public Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Ralph L. Keeney

    (University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California)

  • Robert L. Winkler

    (Duke University, Durham, North Carolina)

Abstract

Many important decisions include the loss of life among their possible consequences. Alternative actions have different implications for the number of possible fatalities, the equity of those eventual fatalities, and the equity of the process resulting in those fatalities. This paper defines a concept of ex ante risk equity to address the equity of the process and distinguishes this concept from the ex post risk equity of the fatalities. The paper indicates that an analysis of decision strategies addresses ex ante equity. In this context, both types of equity as well as loss of life are included in a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility model developed to evaluate public risks. This approach provides a method to investigate the implications of different value judgments in examining alternatives and illustrates an appropriate use of von Neumann-Morgenstern utility for problems involving social consequences such as public risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralph L. Keeney & Robert L. Winkler, 1985. "Evaluating Decision Strategies for Equity of Public Risks," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(5), pages 955-970, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:33:y:1985:i:5:p:955-970
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.33.5.955
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carole Bernard & Christoph M. Rheinberger & Nicolas Treich, 2018. "Catastrophe Aversion and Risk Equity in an Interdependent World," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4490-4504, October.
    2. Mara Airoldi & Alec Morton & Jenifer A. E. Smith & Gwyn Bevan, 2014. "STAR—People-Powered Prioritization," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 34(8), pages 965-975, November.
    3. Thibault Gajdos & John Weymark & Claudio Zoli, 2010. "Shared destinies and the measurement of social risk equity," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 409-424, April.
    4. Ingrid T. Rohde & Kirsten M. Rohde, 2015. "Managing social risks – tradeoffs between risks and inequalities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 103-124, October.
    5. Ehsan Taheri & Chen Wang, 2018. "Eliciting Public Risk Preferences in Emergency Situations," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 223-241, December.
    6. L. Robin Keller & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1995. "Fair Processes for Societal Decisions Involving Distributional Inequalities," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 49-59, February.
    7. Ingrid M.T. Rohde & Kirsten I.M. Rohde, 2012. "Risk and Inequality in a Social Decision Making Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-045/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. George Wu, 1999. "Anxiety and Decision Making with Delayed Resolution of Uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 159-199, April.
    9. Raisa B. Deber & Vivek Goel, 1990. "Using Explicit Decision Rules to Manage Issues of Justice, Risk, and Ethics in Decision Analysis," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 10(3), pages 181-194, August.
    10. Laura A. McLay & Maria E. Mayorga, 2013. "A Dispatching Model for Server-to-Customer Systems That Balances Efficiency and Equity," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 205-220, May.
    11. Tim Bedford, 2013. "Decision Making for Group Risk Reduction: Dealing with Epistemic Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1884-1898, October.
    12. Thibault Gajdos & John A. Weymark & Claudio Zoli, 2008. "Shared Destinies and the Measurement and of Social Risk Equity," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0821, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    13. Wen‐Qiang Bian & L. Robin Keller, 1999. "Chinese and Americans Agree on What Is Fair, but Disagree on What Is Best in Societal Decisions Affecting Health and Safety Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 439-452, June.
    14. L. Robin Keller & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1988. "Equity in Social Risk: Some Empirical Observations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 135-146, March.

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