IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v68y2022i7p4835-4857.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Sound of Silence: What Do We Know When Insiders Do Not Trade?

Author

Listed:
  • George P. Gao

    (T. Rowe Price, Baltimore, Maryland 21202)

  • Qingzhong Ma

    (California State University, Chico, California 95929)

  • David T. Ng

    (Johnson College of Business, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853)

  • Ying Wu

    (School of Business, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey 07030)

Abstract

This paper examines the information content of insider silence, periods of no insider trading. We hypothesize that, to avoid litigation risk, rational insiders do not sell own-company shares when they anticipate bad news; neither would they buy, given unfavorable prospects. Thus, they keep silent. By contrast, insiders sell shares when they do not anticipate significant bad news. Future stock returns are significantly lower following insider silence than following insider net selling, especially among firms with higher litigation risk. We examine two quasinatural experiments where new laws result in changes in shareholder litigation risks for insiders. In both cases, with higher shareholder litigation risks, stocks where insiders stay silent earn significantly lower returns than other stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • George P. Gao & Qingzhong Ma & David T. Ng & Ying Wu, 2022. "The Sound of Silence: What Do We Know When Insiders Do Not Trade?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 4835-4857, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:68:y:2022:i:7:p:4835-4857
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2021.4113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4113
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4113?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April.
    2. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May.
    3. Ke, Bin & Huddart, Steven & Petroni, Kathy, 2003. "What insiders know about future earnings and how they use it: Evidence from insider trades," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 315-346, August.
    4. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. "The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    5. Alan D. Jagolinzer, 2009. "SEC Rule 10b5-1 and Insiders' Strategic Trade," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(2), pages 224-239, February.
    6. Schwert, G. William, 1996. "Markup pricing in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 153-192, June.
    7. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2013. "The other side of value: The gross profitability premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-28.
    8. Greg Niehaus & Greg Roth, 1999. "Insider Trading, Equity Issues and CEO Turnover in Firms Subject to Securities Class Actions," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 28(4), Winter.
    9. Richard W. Sias, 2010. "Insider Trades and Demand by Institutional and Individual Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1544-1595, April.
    10. Lee, Inmoo & Lemmon, Michael & Li, Yan & Sequeira, John M., 2014. "Do voluntary corporate restrictions on insider trading eliminate informed insider trading?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 158-178.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    12. Seyhun, H. Nejat, 1986. "Insiders' profits, costs of trading, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 189-212, June.
    13. Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1974. "Special Information and Insider Trading," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(3), pages 410-428, July.
    14. Gande, Amar & Lewis, Craig M., 2009. "Shareholder-Initiated Class Action Lawsuits: Shareholder Wealth Effects and Industry Spillovers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 823-850, August.
    15. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    16. Alon Brav & Paul A. Gompers, 2003. "The Role of Lockups in Initial Public Offerings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29.
    17. Chowdhury, Mustafa & Howe, John S. & Lin, Ji-Chai, 1993. "The Relation between Aggregate Insider Transactions and Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 431-437, September.
    18. Titman, Sheridan & Wei, K. C. John & Xie, Feixue, 2004. "Capital Investments and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(4), pages 677-700, December.
    19. Piotroski, Joseph D. & Roulstone, Darren T., 2005. "Do insider trades reflect both contrarian beliefs and superior knowledge about future cash flow realizations?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 55-81, February.
    20. La Porta, Rafael, et al, 1997. "Good News for Value Stocks: Further Evidence on Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 859-874, June.
    21. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    22. Jose M. Marin & Jacques P. Olivier, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: Insider Trading and Crashes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2429-2476, October.
    23. Seyhun, H Nejat, 1992. "The Effectiveness of the Insider-Trading Sanctions," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 149-182, April.
    24. Noe, Christopher F., 1999. "Voluntary disclosures and insider transactions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 305-326, July.
    25. Bernardo, Antonio E & Talley, Eric & Welch, Ivo, 2000. "A Theory of Legal Presumptions," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-49, April.
    26. Bettis, J. C. & Coles, J. L. & Lemmon, M. L., 2000. "Corporate policies restricting trading by insiders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 191-220, August.
    27. Agrawal, Anup & Nasser, Tareque, 2012. "Insider trading in takeover targets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 598-625.
    28. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    29. Stefano Giglio & Kelly Shue, 2014. "Editor's Choice No News Is News: Do Markets Underreact to Nothing?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(12), pages 3389-3440.
    30. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    31. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    32. Biggerstaff, Lee & Cicero, David & Wintoki, M. Babajide, 2020. "Insider trading patterns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    33. Rozeff, Michael S & Zaman, Mir A, 1988. "Market Efficiency and Insider Trading: New Evidence," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(1), pages 25-44, January.
    34. Lin, Ji-Chai & Howe, John S, 1990. "Insider Trading in the OTC Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1273-1284, September.
    35. Jonathan L. Rogers, 2008. "Disclosure Quality and Management Trading Incentives," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1265-1296, December.
    36. Nguyen, Hien T. & Phan, Hieu V. & Sun, Lingna (Selina), 2018. "Shareholder litigation rights and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from universal demand laws," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 192-213.
    37. Qiang Cheng & Kin Lo, 2006. "Insider Trading and Voluntary Disclosures," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 815-848, December.
    38. Seyhun, H Nejat & Bradley, Michael, 1997. "Corporate Bankruptcy and Insider Trading," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 189-216, April.
    39. Gregor Andrade & Mark Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 2001. "New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 103-120, Spring.
    40. Stephen J. Choi & Karen K. Nelson & A. C. Pritchard, 2009. "The Screening Effect of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 35-68, March.
    41. Jarrell, Gregg A & Brickley, James A & Netter, Jeffry M, 1988. "The Market for Corporate Control: The Empirical Evidence Since 1980," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 49-68, Winter.
    42. Finnerty, Joseph E, 1976. "Insiders and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1141-1148, September.
    43. Nasser Arshadi, 1998. "Insider Trading Liability and Enforcement Strategy," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), Summer.
    44. Lakonishok, Josef & Lee, Inmoo, 2001. "Are Insider Trades Informative?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 79-111.
    45. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    46. Lauren Cohen & Christopher Malloy & Lukasz Pomorski, 2012. "Decoding Inside Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 1009-1043, June.
    47. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, 2003. "Estimating the Returns to Insider Trading: A Performance-Evaluation Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 453-471, May.
    48. Ferhat Akbas, 2016. "The Calm before the Storm," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 225-266, February.
    49. Kim, Irene & Skinner, Douglas J., 2012. "Measuring securities litigation risk," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 290-310.
    50. Mark Bagnoli & William Kross & Susan G. Watts, 2002. "The Information in Management’s Expected Earnings Report Date: A Day Late, a Penny Short," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5), pages 1275-1296, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan A. Milian, 2016. "Insider sales based on short-term earnings information," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 109-128, July.
    2. Gilstrap, Collin & Petkevich, Alex & Teterin, Pavel, 2020. "Striking up with the in crowd: When option markets and insiders agree," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Chen, Huaizhi & Cohen, Lauren & Gurun, Umit & Lou, Dong & Malloy, Christopher, 2020. "IQ from IP: Simplifying search in portfolio choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 118-137.
    4. Biggerstaff, Lee & Cicero, David & Wintoki, M. Babajide, 2020. "Insider trading patterns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Dai, Lili & Fu, Renhui & Kang, Jun-Koo & Lee, Inmoo, 2016. "Corporate governance and the profitability of insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 235-253.
    6. Laurel Franzen & Xu Li & Oktay Urcan & Mark E. Vargus, 2014. "The Market Response To Insider Sales Of Restricted Stock Versus Unrestricted Stock," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 99-118, February.
    7. Ozlem Akin & Nicholas S. Coleman & Christian Fons‐Rosen & José‐Luis Peydró, 2021. "Political connections and informed trading: Evidence from TARP," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 619-644, September.
    8. Akram Khalilov & Beatriz Garcia Osma, 2020. "Accounting conservatism and the profitability of corporate insiders," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3-4), pages 333-364, March.
    9. Jonathan L. Rogers, 2008. "Disclosure Quality and Management Trading Incentives," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1265-1296, December.
    10. Neupane, Biwesh & Thapa, Chandra & Marshall, Andrew & Neupane, Suman, 2021. "Mimicking insider trades," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Ali, Usman & Hirshleifer, David, 2017. "Opportunism as a firm and managerial trait: Predicting insider trading profits and misconduct," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 490-515.
    12. Abu Chowdhury & Sabur Mollah & Mir A. Zaman, 2018. "What Motivates CEO and CFO Trading – Contrarian Beliefs or Superior Information?," Working Papers 2018-10, Swansea University, School of Management.
    13. Huang, Wan & Bai, Yufan & Luo, Hong, 2024. "Customer identity concealing and insider selling profitability: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Goergen, Marc & Renneboog, Luc & Zhao, Yang, 2019. "Insider trading and networked directors," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-175.
    15. Skaife, Hollis A. & Veenman, David & Wangerin, Daniel, 2013. "Internal control over financial reporting and managerial rent extraction: Evidence from the profitability of insider trading," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 91-110.
    16. Massa, Massimo & Qian, Wenlan & Xu, Weibiao & Zhang, Hong, 2015. "Competition of the informed: Does the presence of short sellers affect insider selling?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 268-288.
    17. Agrawal, Anup & Nasser, Tareque, 2012. "Insider trading in takeover targets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 598-625.
    18. Ke, Bin & Huddart, Steven & Petroni, Kathy, 2003. "What insiders know about future earnings and how they use it: Evidence from insider trades," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 315-346, August.
    19. Ozlem Akin & Nicholas S. Coleman & Christian Fons-Rosen & José-Luis Peydró, 2016. "Political Connections: Evidence From Insider Trading Around TARP," Working Papers 935, Barcelona School of Economics.
    20. Katselas, Dean, 2018. "Insider trading in Australia: Contrarianism and future performance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 112-128.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:68:y:2022:i:7:p:4835-4857. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.