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The Quality of Expertise

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  • Edward D. Van Wesep

    (Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado 80309)

Abstract

Policy makers and managers often turn to experts when in need of information, but we should expect experts to be systematically biased. This is because the decision to research a question implies a belief that research will be fruitful. If priors about the impact of one’s work are correct on average, then those who choose to research a question are optimistic about the quality of their work. The bias varies predictably with attributes of the question being studied. This fact has implications for a variety of mechanism design applications and yields predictions in accordance with a large literature in psychology. This paper was accepted by Teck-Hua Ho, behavioral economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward D. Van Wesep, 2016. "The Quality of Expertise," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(10), pages 2937-2951, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:62:y:2016:i:10:p:2937-2951
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2271
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Afflerbach & Christopher Dun & Henner Gimpel & Dominik Parak & Johannes Seyfried, 2021. "A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 63(4), pages 329-348, August.
    2. Bradley R. Staats & Diwas S. KC & Francesca Gino, 2018. "Maintaining Beliefs in the Face of Negative News: The Moderating Role of Experience," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 804-824, February.

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