IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v55y2009i3p421-437.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Analysis of Simulation Selection Problems

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen E. Chick

    (Technology and Operations Management Area, INSEAD, 77305 Fontainebleau, France)

  • Noah Gans

    (Operations and Information Management Department, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

Ranking and selection procedures are standard methods for selecting the best of a finite number of simulated design alternatives based on a desired level of statistical evidence for correct selection. But the link between statistical significance and financial significance is indirect, and there has been little or no research into it. This paper presents a new approach to the simulation selection problem, one that maximizes the expected net present value of decisions made when using stochastic simulation. We provide a framework for answering these managerial questions: When does a proposed system design, whose performance is unknown, merit the time and money needed to develop a simulation to infer its performance? For how long should the simulation analysis continue before a design is approved or rejected? We frame the simulation selection problem as a "stoppable" version of a Bayesian bandit problem that treats the ability to simulate as a real option prior to project implementation. For a single proposed system, we solve a free boundary problem for a heat equation that approximates the solution to a dynamic program that finds optimal simulation project stopping times and that answers the managerial questions. For multiple proposed systems, we extend previous Bayesian selection procedures to account for discounting and simulation-tool development costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen E. Chick & Noah Gans, 2009. "Economic Analysis of Simulation Selection Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 421-437, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:55:y:2009:i:3:p:421-437
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1080.0949
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0949
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0949?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bennett L. Fox & Peter W. Glynn, 1989. "Simulating Discounted Costs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(11), pages 1297-1315, November.
    2. Brezzi, Monica & Lai, Tze Leung, 2002. "Optimal learning and experimentation in bandit problems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 87-108, November.
    3. John Butler & Douglas J. Morrice & Peter W. Mullarkey, 2001. "A Multiple Attribute Utility Theory Approach to Ranking and Selection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(6), pages 800-816, June.
    4. Barry L. Nelson & David Goldsman, 2001. "Comparisons with a Standard in Simulation Experiments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(3), pages 449-463, March.
    5. Stephen E. Chick & Koichiro Inoue, 2001. "New Two-Stage and Sequential Procedures for Selecting the Best Simulated System," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 732-743, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Demet Batur & Lina Wang & F. Fred Choobineh, 2018. "Methods for System Selection Based on Sequential Mean–Variance Analysis," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 724-738, November.
    2. Batur, D. & Choobineh, F., 2010. "A quantile-based approach to system selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 764-772, May.
    3. Jürgen Branke & Stephen E. Chick & Christian Schmidt, 2007. "Selecting a Selection Procedure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(12), pages 1916-1932, December.
    4. Juergen Branke & Wen Zhang, 2019. "Identifying efficient solutions via simulation: myopic multi-objective budget allocation for the bi-objective case," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 41(3), pages 831-865, September.
    5. Stephen E. Chick & Peter Frazier, 2012. "Sequential Sampling with Economics of Selection Procedures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 550-569, March.
    6. Kabirian, Alireza & Ólafsson, Sigurdur, 2011. "Continuous optimization via simulation using Golden Region search," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 19-27, January.
    7. L. Jeff Hong & Jun Luo & Barry L. Nelson, 2015. "Chance Constrained Selection of the Best," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 317-334, May.
    8. Eric M. Schwartz & Eric T. Bradlow & Peter S. Fader, 2017. "Customer Acquisition via Display Advertising Using Multi-Armed Bandit Experiments," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 500-522, July.
    9. Zhongshun Shi & Yijie Peng & Leyuan Shi & Chun-Hung Chen & Michael C. Fu, 2022. "Dynamic Sampling Allocation Under Finite Simulation Budget for Feasibility Determination," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 557-568, January.
    10. Justin Boesel & Barry L. Nelson & Seong-Hee Kim, 2003. "Using Ranking and Selection to “Clean Up” after Simulation Optimization," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 814-825, October.
    11. Lee, Loo Hay & Chew, Ek Peng & Teng, Suyan & Chen, Yankai, 2008. "Multi-objective simulation-based evolutionary algorithm for an aircraft spare parts allocation problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 476-491, September.
    12. Noah Gans & George Knox & Rachel Croson, 2007. "Simple Models of Discrete Choice and Their Performance in Bandit Experiments," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 383-408, December.
    13. Stephen E. Chick & Jürgen Branke & Christian Schmidt, 2010. "Sequential Sampling to Myopically Maximize the Expected Value of Information," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 71-80, February.
    14. Chao Qin & Daniel Russo, 2024. "Optimizing Adaptive Experiments: A Unified Approach to Regret Minimization and Best-Arm Identification," Papers 2402.10592, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    15. Weiwei Fan & L. Jeff Hong & Barry L. Nelson, 2016. "Indifference-Zone-Free Selection of the Best," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 1499-1514, December.
    16. Lee, Loo Hay & Chew, Ek Peng & Manikam, Puvaneswari, 2006. "A general framework on the simulation-based optimization under fixed computing budget," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(3), pages 1828-1841, November.
    17. Konon, Alexander, 2016. "Career choice under uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145583, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Raluca M. Ursu & Qingliang Wang & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2020. "Search Duration," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(5), pages 849-871, September.
    19. Ahmed, Mohamed A. & Alkhamis, Talal M., 2009. "Simulation optimization for an emergency department healthcare unit in Kuwait," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(3), pages 936-942, November.
    20. Sigrún Andradóttir & Seong‐Hee Kim, 2010. "Fully sequential procedures for comparing constrained systems via simulation," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(5), pages 403-421, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:55:y:2009:i:3:p:421-437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.