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A Semi-Markov Model for Primary Health Care Manpower Supply Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Vandan Trivedi

    (School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195)

  • Ira Moscovice

    (School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195)

  • Richard Bass

    (School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195)

  • John Brooks

    (School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195)

Abstract

In this paper we develop a semi-Markov formulation for modelling transitions of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants between different settings and locations within a geographic area. The model predicts the supply of primary care providers over a planning horizon. We then compare the model predictions with estimates of future demand and need for primary care for a community. Statistical tests for validation and sensitivity analysis of the model are also performed to establish the appropriateness of the semi-Markov approach. With the likelihood of an oversupply of physicians during this decade, the model offers a useful tool for health planners, administrators, legislators, and regulators, for objective decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Vandan Trivedi & Ira Moscovice & Richard Bass & John Brooks, 1987. "A Semi-Markov Model for Primary Health Care Manpower Supply Prediction," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 149-160, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:2:p:149-160
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.33.2.149
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Côté, Murray J. & Stein, William E., 2000. "An Erlang-based stochastic model for patient flow," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 347-359, June.
    2. Agrawal, Rashmi & Nanda, S.K. & Rao, D. Rama & Rao, B.V.L.N., 2013. "Integrated Approach to Human Resource Forecasting: An Exercise in Agricultural Sector," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 26(2).
    3. Georgiou, Andreas C. & Thanassoulis, Emmanuel & Papadopoulou, Alexandra, 2022. "Using data envelopment analysis in markovian decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 276-292.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    health care planning; semi-Markov models;

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