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Group Confidence Pressures in Iterative Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • David M. Boje

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • J. Keith Murnighan

    (University of Illinois)

Abstract

This study investigated the effects of two group decision making techniques on a set of four problems in groups of sizes 3, 7, and 11. Participants included 192 male and 132 female undergraduates. Estimates that could be evaluated for accuracy for each of the problems were collected for a series of three trials. One set of groups received face-to-face verbal feedback from each other, while the other set received written feedback. These data were compared to mean estimates obtained from randomly selected, pooled individual estimates. The results suggested that the pooled individual estimates were somewhat more accurate than those obtained from either of the interacting groups. At the same time, all individuals became more confident of their answers, suggesting the possibility of groupthink. No effects for different group sizes were found, possibly due to the constraints imposed by the structured nature of the two techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • David M. Boje & J. Keith Murnighan, 1982. "Group Confidence Pressures in Iterative Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(10), pages 1187-1196, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:28:y:1982:i:10:p:1187-1196
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.28.10.1187
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    Cited by:

    1. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 183-195, January.
    2. Belton, Ian & Wright, George & Sissons, Aileen & Bolger, Fergus & Crawford, Megan M. & Hamlin, Iain & Taylor Browne Lūka, Courtney & Vasilichi, Alexandrina, 2021. "Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Chang, Victor & Liu, Ben S.C. & Sudharshan, D. & Xu, Qianwen Ariel, 2021. "Towards an effective negotiation modeling: Investigating transboundary disputes with cases of lower possibilities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    4. Meijering, Jurian V. & Tobi, Hilde, 2016. "The effect of controlled opinion feedback on Delphi features: Mixed messages from a real-world Delphi experiment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 166-173.
    5. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Litsiou, Konstantia & Polychronakis, Yiannis & Karami, Azhdar & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Relative performance of judgmental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1185-1196.
    7. Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Litsa, Akrivi & Petropoulos, Fotios & Bougioukos, Vasileios & Khammash, Marwan, 2015. "Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1785-1791.
    8. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Henrion, Max & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 219-232.
    9. Paul M. Gangi & Allen C. Johnston & James L. Worrell & Samuel C. Thompson, 2018. "What could possibly go wrong? A multi-panel Delphi study of organizational social media risk," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 1097-1116, October.
    10. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    11. Bolger, Fergus & Rowe, Gene & Belton, Ian & Crawford, Megan M & Hamlin, Iain & Sissons, Aileen & Taylor Browne Lūka, Courtney & Vasilichi, Alexandrina & Wright, George, 2020. "The Simulated Group Response Paradigm: A new approach to the study of opinion change in Delphi and other structured-group techniques," OSF Preprints 4ufzg, Center for Open Science.
    12. John W. Boudreau, 2004. "50th Anniversary Article: Organizational Behavior, Strategy, Performance, and Design in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(11), pages 1463-1476, November.
    13. Worrell, James L. & Di Gangi, Paul M. & Bush, Ashley A., 2013. "Exploring the use of the Delphi method in accounting information systems research," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 193-208.
    14. Kwiatkowski, Kyle P. & Chinowsky, Paul S., 2017. "Climate change adaptation as an organizational system in transportation infrastructure organizations: Identifying processes and institutional elements," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 47-53.
    15. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1996. "The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 73-89, March.
    16. Rafael Lizarralde & Jaione Ganzarain & Mikel Zubizarreta, 2020. "Assessment and Selection of Technologies for the Sustainable Development of an R&D Center," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-23, December.
    17. Paul M. Gangi & Allen C. Johnston & James L. Worrell & Samuel C. Thompson, 0. "What could possibly go wrong? A multi-panel Delphi study of organizational social media risk," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-20.
    18. Brian Whitworth & Brent Gallupe & Robert McQueen, 2000. "A Cognitive Three-Process Model of Computer-Mediated Group Interaction," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 431-456, September.
    19. Belton, Ian & MacDonald, Alice & Wright, George & Hamlin, Iain, 2019. "Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 72-82.

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