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On the Expected Duration of PERT Type Networks

Author

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  • Salah E. Elmaghraby

    (Yale University)

Abstract

In PERT-type networks, where activity times are random variables, the expected duration of the total project can be approximated by first substituting the expected values of the individual activities, and then evaluating the length of the critical path. This paper develops two improved estimates. Both estimates approach the true expected duration from below, i.e., they are both optimistic estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Salah E. Elmaghraby, 1967. "On the Expected Duration of PERT Type Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(5), pages 299-306, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:13:y:1967:i:5:p:299-306
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.13.5.299
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    Cited by:

    1. Brucker, Peter & Drexl, Andreas & Mohring, Rolf & Neumann, Klaus & Pesch, Erwin, 1999. "Resource-constrained project scheduling: Notation, classification, models, and methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 3-41, January.
    2. R L Bregman, 2009. "Preemptive expediting to improve project due date performance," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(1), pages 120-129, January.
    3. Xiaoyu Ji & Kai Yao, 2017. "Uncertain project scheduling problem with resource constraints," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 575-580, March.
    4. Fatemi Ghomi, S. M. T. & Hashemin, S. S., 1999. "A new analytical algorithm and generation of Gaussian quadrature formula for stochastic network," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 610-625, May.
    5. Lee, Heejung & Suh, Hyo-Won, 2008. "Estimating the duration of stochastic workflow for product development process," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 105-117, January.
    6. Jorgensen, Trond & Wallace, Stein W., 2000. "Improving project cost estimation by taking into account managerial flexibility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 239-251, December.
    7. Azaron, Amir & Fynes, Brian & Modarres, Mohammad, 2011. "Due date assignment in repetitive projects," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 79-85, January.
    8. Tetsuo Iida, 2000. "Computing bounds on project duration distributions for stochastic PERT networks," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(7), pages 559-580, October.
    9. Tavares, L. V., 2002. "A review of the contribution of Operational Research to Project Management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Fatemi Ghomi, S. M. T. & Rabbani, M., 2003. "A new structural mechanism for reducibility of stochastic PERT networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 394-402, March.
    11. Masoud Arjmand & Amir Abbas Najafi & Majid Ebrahimzadeh, 2020. "Evolutionary algorithms for multi-objective stochastic resource availability cost problem," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 57(3), pages 935-985, September.
    12. Azaron, Amir & Katagiri, Hideki & Sakawa, Masatoshi & Kato, Kosuke & Memariani, Azizollah, 2006. "A multi-objective resource allocation problem in PERT networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 172(3), pages 838-854, August.
    13. Azaron, Amir & Fatemi Ghomi, S.M.T., 2008. "Lower bound for the mean project completion time in dynamic PERT networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 120-127, April.
    14. Azaron, Amir & Katagiri, Hideki & Kato, Kosuke & Sakawa, Masatoshi, 2006. "Longest path analysis in networks of queues: Dynamic scheduling problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 132-149, October.

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